18-Factor Risk Model Methodology
A Barra USE4-style factor model for decomposing portfolio risk and return into systematic and idiosyncratic components.
Overview
Factor models explain security returns as a linear combination of common factor returns plus an idiosyncratic component. The general form is:
Where:
- is the return of security
- is the security-specific alpha (skill)
- is the exposure of security to factor
- is the return of factor
- is the idiosyncratic (stock-specific) return
Portfolio Factor Exposures
Portfolio-level factor exposure is the weighted sum of security-level exposures:
Where is the portfolio weight of security (position value divided by total portfolio value).
Factor Orthogonalization
To ensure factors capture independent information, we orthogonalize them using the Gram-Schmidt process. Each factor is projected against all preceding factors and the residual becomes the orthogonalized factor.
For a target factor being orthogonalized against a base factor :
The weights are typically the square root of market capitalization, following Barra convention. This ensures larger companies have proportionally more influence on the regression.
Orthogonalization Order: The order matters. We follow the Barra USE4 convention: SIZE, SIZENL, BTOP, EARNYILD, DIVYILD, GROWTH, LEVERAGE, BETA, BETANL, RESVOL, LIQUIDTY, MOM3WKZS, MOM11MNZS, RET5DZS, SHORT_INTEREST, HFOWN, PASSOWN, SHIMCAPZS.
Factor Return Computation
Daily factor returns are estimated using weighted cross-sectional regression:
Where is the matrix of factor exposures, is a diagonal weight matrix (sqrt market cap), and is the vector of security returns.
Factor Covariance Matrix
We estimate the factor covariance matrix using an Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) with dual half-lives for robustness:
- Short half-life: 32 days (responsive to recent volatility)
- Long half-life: 128 days (stable, long-term structure)
- Blend weight: (equal weight by default)
The EWMA weight for observation days ago is:
Where is the half-life in days.
The 18 Style Factors
Our model includes the market factor plus 18 style factors. Each factor captures a systematic source of return that has been documented in academic literature and used in practice by institutional investors.
Size (SIZE)
Natural log of market capitalization
Interpretation: Positive exposure means the portfolio tilts toward larger companies.
Size (Non-Linear) (SIZENL)
Captures non-linear size effects, orthogonalized against SIZE
Interpretation: Captures mid-cap effects not explained by linear size exposure.
Book-to-Price (BTOP)
Book value divided by market price (value factor)
Interpretation: High positive exposure indicates a value tilt.
Earnings Yield (EARNYILD)
Trailing 12-month earnings per share divided by price
Interpretation: Captures cheapness on an earnings basis. High exposure = cheap stocks.
Dividend Yield (DIVYILD)
Annual dividend per share divided by price
Interpretation: High exposure indicates income-oriented holdings.
Growth (GROWTH)
5-year earnings growth rate
Interpretation: Positive exposure indicates growth stock tilt.
Leverage (LEVERAGE)
Total debt divided by market capitalization
Interpretation: High exposure indicates holdings with higher debt levels.
Beta (BETA)
Sensitivity to market returns over trailing 252 days
Interpretation: Beta > 1 means more volatile than the market; < 1 means less volatile.
Beta (Non-Linear) (BETANL)
Captures non-linear beta effects, orthogonalized against BETA
Interpretation: Captures convexity in market sensitivity not explained by linear beta.
Residual Volatility (RESVOL)
Volatility unexplained by market factor
Interpretation: High exposure indicates holdings with high idiosyncratic risk.
Liquidity (LIQUIDTY)
Average daily dollar volume over trailing 21 days
Interpretation: Higher exposure means more liquid, easily traded positions.
3-Week Momentum (MOM3WKZS)
Z-scored 15-day cumulative return
Interpretation: Captures short-term price momentum.
11-Month Momentum (MOM11MNZS)
Z-scored cumulative return from month -12 to month -2
Interpretation: Classic Carhart momentum factor. Positive = recent winners.
5-Day Return (RET5DZS)
Z-scored 5-day return (short-term reversal)
Interpretation: Captures very short-term price movements, often mean-reverting.
Short Interest (SHORT_INTEREST)
Shares sold short as percentage of float
Interpretation: High short interest may indicate bearish sentiment or squeeze potential.
Hedge Fund Ownership (HFOWN)
Percentage of shares held by hedge funds (from 13F)
Interpretation: High exposure indicates positions favored by hedge funds (potential crowding).
Passive Ownership (PASSOWN)
Percentage held by index funds and ETFs
Interpretation: High passive ownership may reduce price discovery efficiency.
Shim Market Cap (SHIMCAPZS)
Market cap z-score for additional size effects
Interpretation: Captures residual size effects after orthogonalization.
Alpha/Beta Decomposition
Portfolio return can be decomposed into market exposure (beta return) and alpha (skill):
- Beta Return: - Return explained by market exposure
- Alpha: - Return from security selection skill
- Factor Return: Sum of non-market factor contributions
- Specific Return: - Unexplained (idiosyncratic) return
Data Sources
- Price data: Daily adjusted close prices from market data providers
- Fundamentals: Quarterly financial statements from SEC EDGAR
- Ownership: 13F filings for institutional holdings
- Short interest: FINRA short interest reports
References
- MSCI Barra USE4 Handbook (2011) - Equity Risk Model Methodology
- Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics
- Carhart, M. M. (1997). On persistence in mutual fund performance. Journal of Finance
- Frazzini, A., & Pedersen, L. H. (2014). Betting against beta. Journal of Financial Economics
Disclaimer
Factor exposures are estimates based on historical data and may not accurately predict future returns. Factor models have known limitations including estimation error, model misspecification, and changing factor dynamics. This documentation is for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.