18-Factor Risk Model Methodology

A Barra USE4-style factor model for decomposing portfolio risk and return into systematic and idiosyncratic components.

Overview

Factor models explain security returns as a linear combination of common factor returns plus an idiosyncratic component. The general form is:

Ri=αi+k=1Kβi,kfk+ϵiR_i = \alpha_i + \sum_{k=1}^{K} \beta_{i,k} f_k + \epsilon_i

Where:

  • RiR_i is the return of security ii
  • αi\alpha_i is the security-specific alpha (skill)
  • βi,k\beta_{i,k} is the exposure of security ii to factor kk
  • fkf_k is the return of factor kk
  • ϵi\epsilon_i is the idiosyncratic (stock-specific) return

Portfolio Factor Exposures

Portfolio-level factor exposure is the weighted sum of security-level exposures:

βP,k=i=1Nwiβi,k\beta_{P,k} = \sum_{i=1}^{N} w_i \cdot \beta_{i,k}

Where wiw_i is the portfolio weight of security ii (position value divided by total portfolio value).

Factor Orthogonalization

To ensure factors capture independent information, we orthogonalize them using the Gram-Schmidt process. Each factor is projected against all preceding factors and the residual becomes the orthogonalized factor.

For a target factor XX being orthogonalized against a base factor YY:

X=XiwiXiYiiwiYi2YX^{\perp} = X - \frac{\sum_i w_i X_i Y_i}{\sum_i w_i Y_i^2} \cdot Y

The weights wiw_i are typically the square root of market capitalization, following Barra convention. This ensures larger companies have proportionally more influence on the regression.

Orthogonalization Order: The order matters. We follow the Barra USE4 convention: SIZE, SIZENL, BTOP, EARNYILD, DIVYILD, GROWTH, LEVERAGE, BETA, BETANL, RESVOL, LIQUIDTY, MOM3WKZS, MOM11MNZS, RET5DZS, SHORT_INTEREST, HFOWN, PASSOWN, SHIMCAPZS.

Factor Return Computation

Daily factor returns are estimated using weighted cross-sectional regression:

f^=(XTWX)1XTWR\hat{f} = (X^T W X)^{-1} X^T W R

Where XX is the matrix of factor exposures, WW is a diagonal weight matrix (sqrt market cap), and RR is the vector of security returns.

Factor Covariance Matrix

We estimate the factor covariance matrix using an Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) with dual half-lives for robustness:

Σ=λΣshort+(1λ)Σlong\Sigma = \lambda \cdot \Sigma_{\text{short}} + (1-\lambda) \cdot \Sigma_{\text{long}}
  • Short half-life: 32 days (responsive to recent volatility)
  • Long half-life: 128 days (stable, long-term structure)
  • Blend weight: λ=0.5\lambda = 0.5 (equal weight by default)

The EWMA weight for observation tt days ago is:

wt=(12)t/τw_t = \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{t / \tau}

Where τ\tau is the half-life in days.

The 18 Style Factors

Our model includes the market factor plus 18 style factors. Each factor captures a systematic source of return that has been documented in academic literature and used in practice by institutional investors.

1

Size (SIZE)

Natural log of market capitalization

SIZEi=ln(MarketCapi)\text{SIZE}_i = \ln(\text{MarketCap}_i)

Interpretation: Positive exposure means the portfolio tilts toward larger companies.

2

Size (Non-Linear) (SIZENL)

Captures non-linear size effects, orthogonalized against SIZE

SIZENLi=(ln(MarketCapi))3\text{SIZENL}_i = (\ln(\text{MarketCap}_i))^3

Interpretation: Captures mid-cap effects not explained by linear size exposure.

3

Book-to-Price (BTOP)

Book value divided by market price (value factor)

BTOPi=BookValueiMarketCapi\text{BTOP}_i = \frac{\text{BookValue}_i}{\text{MarketCap}_i}

Interpretation: High positive exposure indicates a value tilt.

4

Earnings Yield (EARNYILD)

Trailing 12-month earnings per share divided by price

EARNYILDi=EPSTTM,iPricei\text{EARNYILD}_i = \frac{\text{EPS}_{\text{TTM},i}}{\text{Price}_i}

Interpretation: Captures cheapness on an earnings basis. High exposure = cheap stocks.

5

Dividend Yield (DIVYILD)

Annual dividend per share divided by price

DIVYILDi=DPSannual,iPricei\text{DIVYILD}_i = \frac{\text{DPS}_{\text{annual},i}}{\text{Price}_i}

Interpretation: High exposure indicates income-oriented holdings.

6

Growth (GROWTH)

5-year earnings growth rate

GROWTHi=(EPStEPSt5)1/51\text{GROWTH}_i = \left(\frac{\text{EPS}_{t}}{\text{EPS}_{t-5}}\right)^{1/5} - 1

Interpretation: Positive exposure indicates growth stock tilt.

7

Leverage (LEVERAGE)

Total debt divided by market capitalization

LEVERAGEi=TotalDebtiMarketCapi\text{LEVERAGE}_i = \frac{\text{TotalDebt}_i}{\text{MarketCap}_i}

Interpretation: High exposure indicates holdings with higher debt levels.

8

Beta (BETA)

Sensitivity to market returns over trailing 252 days

βi=Cov(Ri,Rm)Var(Rm)\beta_i = \frac{\text{Cov}(R_i, R_m)}{\text{Var}(R_m)}

Interpretation: Beta > 1 means more volatile than the market; < 1 means less volatile.

9

Beta (Non-Linear) (BETANL)

Captures non-linear beta effects, orthogonalized against BETA

BETANLi=βi2\text{BETANL}_i = \beta_i^2

Interpretation: Captures convexity in market sensitivity not explained by linear beta.

10

Residual Volatility (RESVOL)

Volatility unexplained by market factor

RESVOLi=Var(RiβiRm)\text{RESVOL}_i = \sqrt{\text{Var}(R_i - \beta_i R_m)}

Interpretation: High exposure indicates holdings with high idiosyncratic risk.

11

Liquidity (LIQUIDTY)

Average daily dollar volume over trailing 21 days

LIQUIDTYi=121t=121Volumet×Pricet\text{LIQUIDTY}_i = \frac{1}{21}\sum_{t=1}^{21} \text{Volume}_t \times \text{Price}_t

Interpretation: Higher exposure means more liquid, easily traded positions.

12

3-Week Momentum (MOM3WKZS)

Z-scored 15-day cumulative return

MOM3WKi=Ri,[15,0]μσ\text{MOM3WK}_i = \frac{R_{i,[-15,0]} - \mu}{\sigma}

Interpretation: Captures short-term price momentum.

13

11-Month Momentum (MOM11MNZS)

Z-scored cumulative return from month -12 to month -2

MOM11MNi=Ri,[252,22]μσ\text{MOM11MN}_i = \frac{R_{i,[-252,-22]} - \mu}{\sigma}

Interpretation: Classic Carhart momentum factor. Positive = recent winners.

14

5-Day Return (RET5DZS)

Z-scored 5-day return (short-term reversal)

RET5Di=Ri,[5,0]μσ\text{RET5D}_i = \frac{R_{i,[-5,0]} - \mu}{\sigma}

Interpretation: Captures very short-term price movements, often mean-reverting.

15

Short Interest (SHORT_INTEREST)

Shares sold short as percentage of float

SIi=SharesShortiFloatSharesi\text{SI}_i = \frac{\text{SharesShort}_i}{\text{FloatShares}_i}

Interpretation: High short interest may indicate bearish sentiment or squeeze potential.

16

Hedge Fund Ownership (HFOWN)

Percentage of shares held by hedge funds (from 13F)

HFOWNi=HFSharesHF,iSharesOuti\text{HFOWN}_i = \frac{\sum_{\text{HF}} \text{Shares}_{\text{HF},i}}{\text{SharesOut}_i}

Interpretation: High exposure indicates positions favored by hedge funds (potential crowding).

17

Passive Ownership (PASSOWN)

Percentage held by index funds and ETFs

PASSOWNi=PassiveSharesPassive,iSharesOuti\text{PASSOWN}_i = \frac{\sum_{\text{Passive}} \text{Shares}_{\text{Passive},i}}{\text{SharesOut}_i}

Interpretation: High passive ownership may reduce price discovery efficiency.

18

Shim Market Cap (SHIMCAPZS)

Market cap z-score for additional size effects

SHIMCAPi=ln(MarketCapi)μσ\text{SHIMCAP}_i = \frac{\ln(\text{MarketCap}_i) - \mu}{\sigma}

Interpretation: Captures residual size effects after orthogonalization.

Alpha/Beta Decomposition

Portfolio return can be decomposed into market exposure (beta return) and alpha (skill):

RP=αP+βPRM+ϵPR_P = \alpha_P + \beta_P \cdot R_M + \epsilon_P
  • Beta Return: βPRM\beta_P \cdot R_M - Return explained by market exposure
  • Alpha: αP\alpha_P - Return from security selection skill
  • Factor Return: Sum of non-market factor contributions
  • Specific Return: ϵP\epsilon_P - Unexplained (idiosyncratic) return

Data Sources

  • Price data: Daily adjusted close prices from market data providers
  • Fundamentals: Quarterly financial statements from SEC EDGAR
  • Ownership: 13F filings for institutional holdings
  • Short interest: FINRA short interest reports

References

  • MSCI Barra USE4 Handbook (2011) - Equity Risk Model Methodology
  • Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics
  • Carhart, M. M. (1997). On persistence in mutual fund performance. Journal of Finance
  • Frazzini, A., & Pedersen, L. H. (2014). Betting against beta. Journal of Financial Economics

Disclaimer

Factor exposures are estimates based on historical data and may not accurately predict future returns. Factor models have known limitations including estimation error, model misspecification, and changing factor dynamics. This documentation is for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.