ASSURED GUARANTY LTD

Estimates of expected insurance losses to be paid (recovered), including losses with respect to related legal proceedings, are subject to uncertainties and actual amounts may be different, causing the Company to reserve either too little or too much for future losses.

The financial guaranties issued by the Company’s insurance subsidiaries insure the credit performance of the guaranteed obligations over an extended period of time, in some cases over 30 years, and, in most circumstances, the Company has no right to cancel such financial guaranties. As a result, the Company’s estimate of ultimate losses to be paid (recovered) on a policy is subject to significant uncertainty over the life of the insured transaction. Additionally, even after the Company pays a claim on its financial guaranties (or determines no claim is owing), subsequent related litigation may result in additional losses. If the Company’s actual losses exceed its current estimate, the Company’s financial condition, results of operations, capital, liquidity, business prospects, financial strength ratings, ability to raise additional capital and share price may all be adversely affected.

The Company does not use traditional actuarial approaches to determine its estimates of expected losses to be paid (recovered). The determination of expected loss to be paid (recovered) is an inherently subjective process involving numerous estimates, probability weightings, assumptions and judgments by management, using both internal and external data sources with regard to frequency, severity of loss, economic projections, future interest rates, the perceived strength of legal protections, the perceived strength of the Company’s position in any ongoing legal proceedings, governmental actions, negotiations, delinquency and prepayment rates (with respect to RMBS), timing of cash flows and other factors that affect credit performance. Actual losses will ultimately depend on future events, legal rulings, and/or transaction performance and may be influenced by many interrelated factors that are difficult to predict. As a result, the Company’s current estimates of losses to be paid (recovered), including losses with respect to related legal proceedings, may be subject to considerable volatility and may not reflect the Company’s future ultimate losses paid (recovered).

The Company’s expected loss models and reserve assumptions take into account current and expected future trends, which contemplate the impact of current and possible developments in the performance of the exposure and any related legal proceedings. These factors, which are integral elements of the Company's reserve estimation methodology, are updated on a quarterly basis based on current information. Also, in some instances, the Company may not be able to reasonably estimate the amount or range of loss that could result from an unfavorable outcome of a legal proceeding based on the information available at the stage of the legal proceeding or its estimate may prove to be materially different than the actual results. Loss models and reserve assumptions may be impacted by changes to interest rates due both to discounting and transaction structures that include floating rates, which could impact the calculation of expected losses. Because such information changes over time, sometimes materially, the Company’s projection of losses and its related reserves may also change materially.

See Part II, Item 8, Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Note 4, Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered), and Note 17, Contingencies, for additional information.

The valuation of many of the Company’s assets and liabilities includes methodologies, estimates and assumptions that are subjective and could result in changes to valuations of the Company’s assets and liabilities that may materially adversely affect the Company’s financial condition, results of operations, capital, business prospects and share price.

The Company carries a significant portion of its assets and liabilities at fair value. The approaches used by the Company to calculate the fair value of those assets and liabilities it carries at fair value are described under, Part II, Item 8, Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Note 9, Fair Value Measurement. The determination of fair values is made at a specific point in time, based on available market information and judgments about the assets and liabilities being valued, including estimates of timing and amounts of cash flows and the creditworthiness of the issuer or counterparty. The use of different methodologies and assumptions may have a material effect on estimated fair value amounts.

During periods of market disruption, including periods of rapidly changing credit spreads or illiquidity, it may be difficult to value certain of the Company’s assets and liabilities, particularly if trading becomes less frequent or market data becomes less observable. An increase in the amount of the Company’s alternative investments in its investment portfolio may increase the amount of the Company’s assets subject to this risk. During such periods, more assets and liabilities may fall to the Level 3 valuation level, which describes model derived valuations in which one or more significant inputs or significant value drivers are unobservable, thereby resulting in values that may not be indicative of net realizable value or reflective of future fair values. Rapidly changing credit and equity market conditions could materially impact the valuation of assets and liabilities as reported within the financial statements, and period-to-period changes in value could vary significantly.