Smart Money · Holder IQ
49.1 / 100
Below median holder quality (percentile 28.5 this quarter). Tracked high-scoring holders are adding shares.
AGO
Assured Guaranty LtdNYSE
Financial Services • Insurance - Specialty
Factor tilt: Mid-Cap Defensive
$73.78+0.45%
Close Nov 9, 2026
- Market cap
- $3.27B
- 1 month
- +5.4%
- 3 months
- -2.0%
- 1 year
- -9.5%
- 52-week range
- $67.72$92.18
Reading stored signals…
More market facts
- Dividend, last 12 mo
- $1.48 · 2.01% yield
- Last ex-date
- Aug 20, 2026 · $0.38
- Dividend growth
- 14 years in a row
- EPS estimate, results pending
- $1.70Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026 · 3 analysts · revenue $205.7M · 0.0% in 30d
- Short interest
- 5.9% of float2.4M shares · settled Oct 15, 2026 · +2.6% since Sep 30, 2026 · FINRA
Estimate history · same fiscal quarter
Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026. Source: EODHD earnings_trend.
| Observed / analysts | EPS | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| 3 analysts | 1.6986 | 205.7M |
| 3 analysts | 1.6986 | 205.7M |
| 3 analysts | 1.6986 | 205.7M |
| 3 analysts | 1.6986 | 205.7M |
| 3 analysts | 1.6986 | 205.7M |
Dates identify stored observations, not earnings announcements. Gaps do not mean estimates were unchanged. The analyst group and vendor earnings basis may change.
Link an account to see your stake, watchlist and past holdings. Compare changes in earnings expectations with your investment case. These are analyst estimates, not reported results or a prediction of your return.
Fundamentals · trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026
- Revenue
- $870M
- Net income
- $351M
- Free cash flow
- —
- Book value
- $5.56B
- Total debt
- —
- P/E
- 9.3×
- Price / sales
- 3.8×
- Price / book
- 0.6×
- FCF yield
- —
- Net margin
- +40.3%
EODHD (TTM) · as of Nov 9, 2026
End-of-day close from stored market data, not a live quote.
About Assured Guaranty Ltd
Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through Insurance and Asset Management segments. The company offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments.
Read more
It also provides specialty insurance and reinsurance on transactions with risk profiles similar to those of its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty form, as well as offers credit protection through reinsurance. In addition, the company insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed bonds, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, it involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, and pooled infrastructure obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, pooled corporate obligations, and financial products. Additionally, the company offers specialty business, such as diversified real estate, insurance reserve financing and securitizations, pooled corporate obligations, and aircraft residual value insurance (RVI) transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.
- Website
- assuredguaranty.com
- Headquarters
- Hamilton, Bermuda
- Employees
- 367
- Listed
- Apr 23, 2004
- Fiscal year ends
- December
Company profile from EODHD, stored Oct 25, 2026.
Quarterly results
The last 8 fiscal quarters from EODHD’s latest stored vendor-normalized figures. These may include restatements. Year over year compares the same quarter a year earlier. Gross margin and operating income are not shown for a bank or insurer.
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026filed Aug 7, 2026 | $197.0M | -29.1% | $39.0M |
| Mar 2026filed May 8, 2026 | $261.0M | -19.7% | $88.0M |
| Dec 2025filed Feb 27, 2026 | $213.0M | +40.1% | $119.0M |
| Sep 2025filed Nov 7, 2025 | $199.0M | -21.0% | $105.0M |
| Jun 2025filed Aug 8, 2025 | $278.0M | +43.3% | $103.0M |
| Mar 2025filed May 9, 2025 | $325.0M | +43.8% | $176.0M |
| Dec 2024filed Feb 28, 2025 | $152.0M | -46.1% | $18.0M |
| Sep 2024filed Nov 12, 2024 | $252.0M | +63.6% | $171.0M |
Balance sheet · cash, debt and near-term obligations
This operating-company comparison is not shown for a bank or insurer. Their funding and liquidity need a different interpretation; this is not a zero-debt verdict.
Fiscal years · last 6
| Fiscal year | Revenue | YoY | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025filed Feb 27, 2026 | $788.0M | -3.2% | $503.0M |
| Dec 2024filed Feb 28, 2025 | $814.0M | — | $376.0M |
| Dec 2022filed Mar 1, 2023 | $684.0M | -2.0% | $124.0M |
| Dec 2021filed Feb 25, 2022 | $698.0M | -35.6% | $389.0M |
| Dec 2020filed Feb 26, 2021 | $1.1B | +17.7% | $362.0M |
| Dec 2019filed Feb 28, 2020 | $921.0M | -6.8% | $402.0M |
Annual cash generation
Does profit turn into cash? Compare AGO’s accounting profit with operating cash flow and capital spending. Amounts are in USD.
This operating-company cash comparison is not shown for financial firms. Banking and insurance cash movements need a different interpretation; this is not a zero-cash-flow verdict.
Cash-flow source and meaning
Source: EODHD annual financial statements, latest stored vendor-normalized figures. These may include restatements and may differ from the filer’s own XBRL. A filing date is not the knowledge date of this version of the values.
Free cash flow is the vendor’s reported figure, shown only when it agrees with operating cash flow less capital spending recorded as a positive outflow. It is not cash guaranteed for dividends or buybacks, and it does not subtract every financing obligation. Missing or sign-incompatible inputs are not filled in. An unlabelled currency is used only for a confirmed domestic USD filer. These are annual statements, not forecasts or an originally-filed history.
Company Quality Grade
How steadily did the business compound its per-share book value with dividends over 40 quarters? This historical measure is not a stock-price return or a forecast.
As of · Window to
Grade withheld by the published method. This is not a zero or a poor-quality verdict.
- The filings do not provide the intangible-asset inputs the method requires.
intangibles_untagged
Link an account to see your stake, watchlist and past holdings. Use this to question the durability of the business behind your investment case, alongside its filings and valuation. A withheld grade is a data or method limit, not a sell signal. For a short position, it does not predict timing, borrowing costs or downside. It does not measure your account’s return.
Method, filing sources and publication receipt
Source: SEC first-filed XBRL. Midas Edge API’s published Green Compounders method uses only filings public by the as-of date, split-adjusted shares and the original filed values. Restatements do not replace them. Issuer pools and entity types reflect the SEC submissions captured for this run, not historical classifications at each as-of date.
The primary form fits log book value with reinvested dividends against time. The method checks the starting book and market-cap floors and excludes identified non-reliance/enforcement windows. Its cohort is fixed at capture time, so historical percentiles have capture and survival limits. It does not check audit-opinion going-concern text. This grade is separate from InsiderIQ, HolderIQ and NetCredibility.
Input filings (41 in this window): 0001273813-16-000086; 0001273813-16-000102; 0001273813-17-000009. The links show up to three of the input filings.
Method labels: going_concern_unchecked, intangibles_carried_forward, preferred_untagged_zero, red_finding_basis_d1_enforcement_naming_issuer
- Parameters
- pg-g2-params.v17
- Plane
- sha256:841c1bb46826c45b96472bf9adff6a93c8ce5f5392636cff297045298e9bf517
- Grade row SHA-256
- sha256:8df76c6f6d09584ec81565f9a27a09f2858ca652195a4637aad79864c8644604
- Manifest SHA-256
- sha256:c94c0931ffa7d9818ad0d34110b400f347a53da8a9c7d9aee1013095384d6a8a
- Engine SHA-256
- sha256:defa2e17f100b92a30576940d1632532b5cc4f37a2cb4bcc7fcc881856417811
- Hand-check receipt SHA-256
- sha256:03dd742b7b83e1130b4c01f9beaaf2671b20562c447a337dd047a41ad675ed3c
Short-interest history
FINRA reports open short positions for a settlement date. The publication date is later. These are reported positions, with a separate date for each observation.
Compare the reported short exposure around the dates you bought, sold or watched AGO. A long position benefits from price rises; a short position benefits from falls. A change in these counts does not predict either move.
Settlement Oct 15, 2026
2,437,328 shares short
+62,525 shares (+2.6%) vs Sep 30, 2026
5.9% of the stored float. Published Oct 26, 2026.
Settlement Sep 30, 2026
2,374,803 shares short
+96,882 shares (+4.3%) vs Sep 15, 2026
5.7% of the stored float. Published Oct 9, 2026.
Settlement Sep 15, 2026
2,277,921 shares short
+17,578 shares (+0.8%) vs Aug 31, 2026
Share of float unavailable. Published Sep 24, 2026.
Settlement Aug 31, 2026
2,260,343 shares short
+98,159 shares (+4.5%) vs Aug 14, 2026
Share of float unavailable. Published Sep 10, 2026.
Settlement Aug 14, 2026
2,162,184 shares short
+262,961 shares (+13.8%) vs Jul 31, 2026
Share of float unavailable. Published Aug 25, 2026.
Settlement Jul 31, 2026
1,899,223 shares short
-29,655 shares (-1.5%) vs Jul 15, 2026
Share of float unavailable. Published Aug 11, 2026.
Change = this settlement’s shares short − the previous recorded settlement’s shares short; percentage change divides by that earlier count. A zero earlier count has no percentage change. Split-spanning counts are left uncompared. Float percentages use the stored settlement observation, not today’s float.
Source: stored FINRA equity short-interest records, up to six settlements from the last 240 days. FINRA data and reporting dates · How to read short interest
Dividends and stock splits
See the recorded cash amounts and dates behind AGO’s income, and the splits that change its share count. Dates below are stored event records, not confirmation of a payment to your account.
Cash-dividend records
USD 0.38 per share
Ex-dividend date: Nov 18, 2026 (future recorded date)
Recorded pay date: Dec 2, 2026 (pending)
Cash dividend · Polygon event record
USD 0.38 per share
Ex-dividend date: Aug 20, 2026
Recorded pay date: Sep 3, 2026 (past date)
Cash dividend · Polygon event record
USD 0.38 per share
Ex-dividend date: May 15, 2026
Recorded pay date: May 29, 2026 (past date)
Cash dividend · Polygon event record
USD 0.38 per share
Ex-dividend date: Mar 6, 2026
Recorded pay date: Mar 20, 2026 (past date)
Cash dividend · Polygon event record
USD 0.34 per share
Ex-dividend date: Nov 19, 2025
Recorded pay date: Dec 3, 2025 (past date)
Cash dividend · Polygon event record
USD 0.34 per share
Ex-dividend date: Aug 20, 2025
Recorded pay date: Sep 3, 2025 (past date)
Cash dividend · Polygon event record
Up to six Polygon cash-dividend events, including recorded ex-dates within the next 120 days. Amounts retain their recorded currency and decimal precision. Historical amounts are not restated to a common split basis, annualized, or converted to dollars.
For a long holding, compare the ex-date with when you held the shares and check the pay date against your broker’s cash history. Owning the stock today does not establish past entitlement. For a short holding, a dividend can create a payment obligation to the share lender.
Ex-dates and special dividend rules · Short-sale dividend obligations · Dividend data definitions
Split history
No qualified split events are stored. This does not establish that the stock has never split.
Up to six stored split dates through Nov 10, 2026. Equivalent vendor ratios are combined; conflicting ratios are left out. This history may be incomplete.
A split changes the share count and per-share price basis; it does not by itself add investment value. Put your holding’s earlier and later share counts on the same basis before comparing them. This applies to both long shares and shares owed on a short position.
How stock splits workPortfolio context
Link an account to see your stake, watchlist and past holdings.
We’ll show you if AGO is in your portfolio and how much it contributes.
Sign inMarket context
Loading market dates
Smart money context
Holder IQ: MEDIUM
36 smart-money holders: institutions with a high Holder IQ
Q2 2026, filed Oct 27, 2026
Smart-money 13F trend: accumulating (light)
Unlock crowding heatmapUnlock filer discoveryInsider context
Sentiment: unknown
No recent insider trades detected.
Read the insider context evidence
What it means for you
Sign in to read your holdings or watchlist context. No personal position or direction is inferred.
What happened
No directional recent-activity label is available. This context label is separate from the scored insider signal read.
Why it can matter
A count of reported activity describes a sample, not purchase conviction, an insider’s intent or a future price move. Neutral is not an all-clear, and absent direction is not neutral evidence.
How we got this
The current context rule reads at most 50 nonduplicate issuer/share-class records filed in the last 90 days. It counts a bullish direction or purchase code P toward bullish, and a bearish direction or sale code S toward bearish. A side must exceed the opposite count by more than two to set its label; otherwise nonzero directional counts produce neutral. Calculation unavailable for this saved label: its counts, exact records, as-of time and rule version are not supplied here. Do not substitute the separate scored read’s different window or denominator.
Where the data comes from
Stored SEC Forms 3/4/5 insider-signal records, ordered by filing date with amendment duplicates excluded. Filing date is not transaction date. The last-trade line locates recent reported activity; it does not date or reconstruct the complete count.
Red flags: 0
Read the insider context evidence
What it means for you
Sign in to read your holdings or watchlist context. No personal position or direction is inferred.
What happened
No directional recent-activity label is available. This context label is separate from the scored insider signal read.
Why it can matter
A count of reported activity describes a sample, not purchase conviction, an insider’s intent or a future price move. Neutral is not an all-clear, and absent direction is not neutral evidence.
How we got this
The current context rule reads at most 50 nonduplicate issuer/share-class records filed in the last 90 days. It counts a bullish direction or purchase code P toward bullish, and a bearish direction or sale code S toward bearish. A side must exceed the opposite count by more than two to set its label; otherwise nonzero directional counts produce neutral. Calculation unavailable for this saved label: its counts, exact records, as-of time and rule version are not supplied here. Do not substitute the separate scored read’s different window or denominator.
Where the data comes from
Stored SEC Forms 3/4/5 insider-signal records, ordered by filing date with amendment duplicates excluded. Filing date is not transaction date. The last-trade line locates recent reported activity; it does not date or reconstruct the complete count.
Largest 13-F holders · Q2 2026
367 filers reported a long position in AGO for Q2 2026. 13-F holdings are filed up to 45 days after the quarter ends.
The top 10 hold
55.8%
of the 41.2M shares 13-F filers reported
Moves vs Q1 2026
7 added3 trimmed
Net shares held
+0.2%
across the 10 holders with a comparable Q1 2026 book
| Rank | Holder | Value | Shares | Shares vs Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BlackRock, Inc. | $463.9M · 5.8M shares | 5.8M | +0.1% |
| 2 | Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | $317.9M · 4M shares | 4M | +1% |
| 3 | Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | $242.7M · 3M shares | 3M | +0.5% |
| 4 | Vanguard Capital Management LLC | $153.6M · 1.9M shares | 1.9M | -2.5% |
| 5 | State Street Corp | $127.2M · 1.6M shares | 1.6M | +0.9% |
| 6 | First Trust Advisors LP | $121.7M · 1.5M shares | 1.5M | +11.9% |
| 7 | American Century Companies Inc | $112.5M · 1.4M shares | 1.4M | +6.6% |
| 8 | AQR Capital Management LLC | $111.7M · 1.4M shares | 1.4M | +62.1% |
| 9 | Reinhart Partners, LLC. | $99.9M · 1.2M shares | 1.2M | -3.2% |
| 10 | River Road Asset Management, LLC | $93M · 1.2M shares | 1.2M | -38.7% |
Sign in to see each holder’s Holder IQ, factor-adjusted Holder IQ and rank, and compare these holders with all scored filers. Available on every plan.
Sign in5% holder filings (13D / 13G)
Holders of more than 5% of AGO file with the SEC within days. A 13D holder may seek to influence the company; a 13G holder is passive. Each holder’s latest filing from the last three years.
| Filed | Holder | % of class |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2026 | Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC13G · passive | 8.81% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Vanguard Capital Management LLC13G · passive | 5.12% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Vanguard Group Inc13G · passive · amended | 0%under 5% |
Moves the factor model did not explain
How much of AGO’s move accompanied the market and its measured style leanings, and how much was left? The residual is unexplained by this fitted model. It does not establish a cause, skill or future alpha.
- Market
- -4.19%
- Style leanings
- +11.42%
- Unexplained residual
- -2.34%
- Stock move
- +4.88%
Window contributions are percentage points of starting stock value. The market bar is the fitted common intercept, not an index return. Market + styles + residual = stock move; opposite signs can offset. Source: daily_returns, dated security_factor_exposures × barra_factor_returns, and stored security_specific_returns; 2026-10-09–2026-11-06, model v1.2.0. Returns are dimensionless on the USD listing; no currency conversion.
Link an account with dated transactions to see what share of your own holding’s move since its purchase-date close was unexplained, with long and short positions distinguished. Your private holdings never enter this public chart.
Dated model observations (20)
Daily percentage returns, not window contributions. Source: the same dated warehouse rows and model v1.2.0; observed 2026-11-10T15:23:38.230Z. Absent sessions are never interpolated; missing or failed inputs stay unavailable.
| Date | Stock | Market | Styles | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.59% | -0.08% | +0.56% | -1.07% | |
| +0.09% | +0.02% | +0.56% | -0.49% | |
| -1.00% | -1.18% | +0.75% | -0.57% | |
| +1.28% | +0.52% | +0.90% | -0.15% | |
| +1.42% | -1.05% | +0.85% | +1.61% | |
| -1.54% | +0.36% | +0.15% | -2.05% | |
| +0.36% | +0.43% | +0.37% | -0.44% | |
| -1.06% | +0.49% | -1.08% | -0.46% | |
| +1.50% | -1.09% | +1.99% | +0.60% | |
| -1.21% | -0.46% | -0.07% | -0.68% | |
| +0.98% | +0.50% | -0.78% | +1.25% | |
| -0.43% | +0.68% | -0.61% | -0.50% | |
| -0.74% | +0.37% | -1.29% | +0.18% | |
| +2.25% | -0.46% | +2.67% | +0.03% | |
| -0.56% | -1.77% | +1.76% | -0.55% | |
| +2.06% | -0.24% | +1.08% | +1.22% | |
| -0.89% | +0.35% | +0.20% | -1.44% | |
| +1.71% | +1.75% | +2.07% | -2.10% | |
| -1.03% | -3.95% | +2.70% | +0.21% | |
| +2.36% | +0.71% | -1.44% | +3.09% |
How this split is calculated
Each day uses that day’s fitted market intercept and style exposures multiplied by that day’s published factor returns. Their sum plus the independently stored residual must reconcile to the stock return. Window effects are weighted by stock wealth at each day’s start and added; the stock return compounds. Every expected US market session must be present and pass source, identity, model and numerical checks. This retrospective fit is an explanation of measured returns, not evidence of causation or an investable forecast. The window ends at the latest published model session, which can lag the market; today’s unfinished session is excluded.
What insiders reported owning
Reading dated filing evidence…
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