ASSURED GUARANTY LTD

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.5% in 2023, compared to an increase of 1.9% in 2022, according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Additionally, the BEA reported real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023. At the end of December 2023, the U.S. unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, stood at 3.7%, near where it started the year at 3.5%, and down from the COVID-19 pandemic high of 14.7% in April 2020. The Company believes a more robust economy makes it less likely that obligors whose obligations it guarantees will default.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the inflation rate in the U.S. before seasonal adjustment for the 12-month period ending December 2023, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), was 3.4%, as compared to 6.5% for the 12-month period ending December 2022. According to the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics, the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) was 4.2% in the 12 months through December 2023 as compared to 9.2% for the 12 months through December 2022. Consumer price inflation in the U.K. increases reported net par outstanding for certain U.K exposures with approximately $22.9 billion of net par outstanding as of December 31, 2023, and also increases projected future installment premiums on the portion of such exposure that pays at least a portion of the premium on an installment basis over the term of the exposure.

With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) acknowledging the need to combat inflation, in March 2022 the FOMC began again raising the target range for the federal funds rate and stated that it would reduce its holdings of treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. From March 2022 through July 2023, the FOMC raised the federal funds rate from a target range of 0% to 0.25% to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The FOMC has repeatedly declared that it seeks to achieve maximum employment, and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time, the FOMC indicated that it will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. Since its July 2023 meeting, the FOMC has maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.50%, including through its most recent meeting held January 30-31, 2024, stating that it would continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy.

The level and direction of interest rates and credit spreads impact the Company in numerous ways. On the one hand, higher interest rates may reduce the fair value of fixed-maturity securities currently held in the Company’s investment portfolio, dampen municipal bond issuance and negatively impact the finances of some of the obligors whose payments the Company insures. On the other hand, higher interest rates are often accompanied by wider spreads, which may make the Company’s credit enhancement products more attractive in the U.S. municipal bond market and increase the level of premiums it can charge for those products.

The 30-year AAA Municipal Market Data (MMD) rate is a measure of interest rates in the Company’s largest financial guaranty insurance market, U.S. public finance. The MMD rate averaged 3.65% for 2023, higher than the 3.00% and 1.54% average of 2022 and 2021, respectively. Meanwhile, the difference, or credit spread, between the 30-year BBB-rated general obligation relative to the 30-year AAA MMD averaged 101 basis points (bps) in 2023. This represented an increase from an average of 90 bps and 70 bps in 2022 and 2021, respectively. The Company believes that, over time, wider spreads could permit it to increase its premium rates on new business, and higher interest rates may also increase the amount the Company can earn on its largely fixed-maturity securities.

Additionally, the Company believes that higher interest rates are discouraging some homeowners from moving as many are locked into lower mortgage interest rates at the homes in which they reside, which, in turn, is restricting housing inventory and leading to an increase in home prices as demand outpaces supply. The increase in housing prices may benefit distressed RMBS the Company insures. The National Association of Realtors reported that year-over-year existing-home sales declined 6.2% from December 2022 to December 2023, while the median existing-home sales price increased 4.4% from December 2022 ($366,500) to December 2023 ($382,600).