ASSURED GUARANTY LTD

Assured Guaranty is the market leader in the financial guaranty industry. The Company’s position in the market benefits from its ability to maintain strong financial strength ratings, its strong claims-paying resources, its proven willingness and ability to make claim payments to policyholders after obligors have defaulted, and its ability to achieve recoveries in respect of the claims that it has paid on insured residential mortgage-backed and other securities and to resolve its troubled municipal exposures.

Assured Guaranty’s principal competition is in the form of obligations that issuers decide to issue on an uninsured basis. In the U.S. public finance market, when the difference in yield (or the credit spread) between a bond insured by Assured Guaranty and an uninsured bond is narrow, as is often the case in a low interest rate environment, investors may prefer greater yield over insurance protection, and issuers may find the cost savings from insurance less compelling. In contrast, when credit spreads are wider, there is comparatively more room for issuer savings and insurance premium. However, credit spreads may be narrower in a higher interest rate environment, as occurred in late 2022, and credit spreads may widen in a low interest rate environment, as occurred after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic as a result of market concerns about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on some municipal credits. See Part II, Item 7, Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Overview — Economic Environment.

In the U.S. public finance market, Assured Guaranty is the only financial guaranty company active before the 2008 financial crisis that has maintained sufficient financial strength to write new business continuously since the crisis began. Assured Guaranty has only one direct competitor for public finance financial guaranty business, Build America Mutual Assurance Company (BAM), a mutual insurance company that commenced business in 2012.

The Company estimates that, of the new U.S. public finance bonds sold with insurance in 2023, the Company insured approximately 61% of the par, while BAM insured approximately 39%. BAM is effective in competing with the Company for small to medium sized U.S. public finance transactions in certain sectors. BAM sometimes prices its guaranties for such transactions at levels the Company does not believe produces an adequate rate of return and so does not match, but BAM's pricing and underwriting strategies may have a negative impact on the amount of premium the Company is able to charge for its insurance for such transactions. However, the Company believes it has competitive advantages over BAM due to: AGM’s larger capital base; AGM’s ability to insure larger transactions and issuances in more diverse U.S. bond sectors; BAM’s higher leverage ratios than those of AGM; BAM’s inability to date to generate profits and to increase its statutory capital meaningfully; and AGM’s strong financial strength ratings from multiple rating agencies (in the case of AGM, AA+ from Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA), AA from S&P and A1 from Moody’s, compared with BAM’s AA solely from S&P). Additionally, as a public company with access to both the equity and debt capital markets, Assured Guaranty may have greater flexibility to raise capital, if needed.

In the non-U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. public finance markets, Assured Guaranty is the only financial guaranty insurance company currently writing new guaranties. Management considers the Company’s greater diversification to be a competitive advantage in the long run because it means the Company is not wholly dependent on conditions in any one market. In the non-U.S. infrastructure finance market, the uninsured execution serving as the Company’s principal competition occurs primarily in privately funded transactions where no bonds are sold in the public markets.

In the structured finance market, the majority of our business is represented by bilateral transactions with counterparties (typically insurance companies or banks) where the motivation to buy our product relates to capital savings, and/or single risk or sectoral risk management. In this sector the Company’s principal competition is from other forms of capital saving or risk syndication available to banks and insurers, including nonpayment insurance. In the securitization markets, uninsured execution occurs in both public and private transactions primarily where bonds are sold with sufficient credit or structural enhancement embedded in transactions, such as through overcollateralization, first loss insurance, excess spread or other terms, to make the bonds attractive to investors without bond insurance.

In the future, additional new entrants into the financial guaranty industry could reduce the Company’s new business prospects, including by furthering price competition or offering financial guaranty insurance on transactions with structural and security features that are more favorable to the issuers than those required by Assured Guaranty. However, the Company believes that the presence of additional guarantors might also increase the overall visibility and acceptance of the product by a broadening group of investors, and the fact that investors are willing to commit fresh capital to the industry may promote market confidence in the product.

In addition to financial guaranty insurance companies, Assured Guaranty competes with other forms of credit enhancement such as letters of credit or credit derivatives provided by banks and other financial institutions (some of which are governmental enterprises), nonpayment insurance, or direct guaranties of municipal, structured finance or other debt by federal or state governments or government sponsored or affiliated agencies. Alternative credit enhancement structures, and in particular federal government credit enhancement or other programs, can interfere with the Company’s new business prospects, particularly if they provide direct government-level guaranties, restrict the use of third-party financial guaranties or reduce the amount of transactions that might qualify for financial guaranties.

The Company believes that issuers and investors in securities will continue to purchase financial guaranty insurance, especially if credit spreads widen. U.S. municipalities have budgetary requirements that are best met through financings in the fixed income capital markets. Historically, smaller municipal issuers have frequently used financial guaranties in order to access the capital markets with new debt offerings at a lower all-in interest rate than on an unguaranteed basis. In addition, the Company expects long-term debt financings for infrastructure projects will grow throughout the world, as will the financing needs associated with privatization initiatives or refinancing of infrastructure projects in developed countries.

The Company evaluates the amount of capital it requires based on an internal capital model as well as rating agency models and insurance regulations. The Company believes it has excess capital based on its internal capital model and rating agency models, and, to the extent permitted by insurance regulation or other regulatory authority, has been returning some of its excess capital to shareholders by repurchasing its common shares and paying dividends, and has been deploying some of its excess capital to acquire financial guaranty portfolios and alternative investments.