As of Nov 13, 2026. At least 3 observations, ranked by Alpha IQ over 63 trading days. 5,262 eligible records before the optional luck filter.
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#1 Edward K. Christian Trust
0 buys · 29 sales · 63 trading days
Alpha IQ98.7
Why this rank?
29 of 29 worked
Unlikely under model
Unlikely under the luck model.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 29 sales, measured over 63 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
36 trade dates · 4 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold SGAApr 3, 2025$151
Stock +14.7%; recorded comparison +23.7%; outcome in the trade's direction +9.0%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
Apr 3, 2025 · $38 · Form 4Stock +14.7% versus SPY +23.7%.
Apr 4, 2025 · $113 · Form 4Stock +14.7% versus SPY +23.7%.
Sold SGAApr 1, 2025$19,214
Stock +6.2%; recorded comparison +15.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +9.4%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
Apr 2, 2025 · $18,834 · Form 4Stock +6.2% versus SPY +15.6%.
Apr 1, 2025 · $380 · Form 4Stock +6.2% versus SPY +15.6%.
Sold SGAJun 16, 2025$1,038
Stock +2.2%; recorded comparison +10.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +8.6%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
Jun 16, 2025 · $625 · Form 4Stock +2.2% versus SPY +10.8%.
Jun 17, 2025 · $413 · Form 4Stock +2.2% versus SPY +10.8%.
Sold SGAJun 12, 2025$3,873
Stock +1.6%; recorded comparison +9.5%; outcome in the trade's direction +7.9%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 12, 2025 · $3,873 · Form 4Stock +1.6% versus SPY +9.5%.
Sold SGAJun 11, 2025$886
Stock -5.4%; recorded comparison +8.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +14.3%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 11, 2025 · $886 · Form 4Stock -5.4% versus SPY +8.9%.
Sold SGAJun 5, 2025$121,853
Stock -0.3%; recorded comparison +8.4%; outcome in the trade's direction +8.8%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 5, 2025 · $121,853 · Form 4Stock -0.3% versus SPY +8.4%.
Sold SGAJul 25, 2025$24,107
Stock -4.5%; recorded comparison +6.3%; outcome in the trade's direction +10.9%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jul 25, 2025 · $24,107 · Form 4Stock -4.5% versus SPY +6.3%.
Sold SGAJul 23, 2025$7,919
Stock -6.9%; recorded comparison +5.3%; outcome in the trade's direction +12.1%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jul 23, 2025 · $7,919 · Form 4Stock -6.9% versus SPY +5.3%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001944397. Profile company CIK 0000886136. SAGA COMMUNICATIONS INC
Recorded role: 10% Owner · SGA.
29 obs. Confidence 97; 63-day hit rate 100.0%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Separate past-calls measure (3 months · sample 21.5):
Past calls: 68% directionally correct over 3 months (adjusted toward 50% peer prior; 88% observed; recency-weighted sample 21.5)
Descriptive statistic of past trades, not a prediction
How to read these past calls · As of 2026-11-13
Bullish calls are correct after outperformance; bearish calls are correct after underperformance, relative to SPY. Only directional buy and sell signals are graded. Gifts, grants and tax withholding are excluded. Recent outcomes receive more weight, with a half-life of 252 trading days. The peer prior contributes 24 equivalent outcomes. The weighted sample is not a count of trades.
Luck reference: 29 of 29 represented trade dates; upper tail 5.956e-8; corrected within the horizon 3.134e-4, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 1.359e-3. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 4 windows, with 4 wins and upper tail 1.008e-1.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 21 sales, measured over 63 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
26 trade dates · 1 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold CCOIMay 29, 2025$1,172,593
Stock -16.4%; recorded comparison +10.4%; outcome in the trade's direction +26.7%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 29, 2025 · $1,172,593 · Form 4Stock -16.4% versus the recorded factor comparison +10.4%.
Sold CCOIMay 28, 2025$948,174
Stock -21.0%; recorded comparison +9.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +30.9%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 28, 2025 · $948,174 · Form 4Stock -21.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +9.9%.
Sold CCOIMay 27, 2025$973,322
Stock -19.2%; recorded comparison +11.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +31.1%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 27, 2025 · $973,322 · Form 4Stock -19.2% versus the recorded factor comparison +11.9%.
Sold CCOIMay 23, 2025$1,173,318
Stock -23.9%; recorded comparison +11.2%; outcome in the trade's direction +35.1%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 23, 2025 · $1,173,318 · Form 4Stock -23.9% versus the recorded factor comparison +11.2%.
Sold CCOIMay 22, 2025$1,156,768
Stock -18.3%; recorded comparison +13.5%; outcome in the trade's direction +31.8%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 22, 2025 · $1,156,768 · Form 4Stock -18.3% versus the recorded factor comparison +13.5%.
Sold CCOIMay 21, 2025$1,872,248
Stock -16.4%; recorded comparison +11.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +28.3%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 21, 2025 · $1,872,248 · Form 4Stock -16.4% versus the recorded factor comparison +11.9%.
Sold CCOIMay 20, 2025$749,348
Stock -18.5%; recorded comparison +4.4%; outcome in the trade's direction +22.9%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 20, 2025 · $749,348 · Form 4Stock -18.5% versus the recorded factor comparison +4.4%.
Sold CCOIMay 16, 2025$764,925
Stock -24.3%; recorded comparison -3.4%; outcome in the trade's direction +20.9%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 16, 2025 · $764,925 · Form 4Stock -24.3% versus the recorded factor comparison -3.4%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001166976. Profile company CIK 0001158324. COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC.
Recorded role: CEO · CCOI.
21 obs. Confidence 93; 63-day hit rate 100.0%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Separate past-calls measure (3 months · sample 18.9):
Past calls: 70% directionally correct over 3 months (adjusted toward 50% peer prior; 95% observed; recency-weighted sample 18.9)
Descriptive statistic of past trades, not a prediction
How to read these past calls · As of 2026-11-13
Bullish calls are correct after outperformance; bearish calls are correct after underperformance, relative to SPY. Only directional buy and sell signals are graded. Gifts, grants and tax withholding are excluded. Recent outcomes receive more weight, with a half-life of 252 trading days. The peer prior contributes 24 equivalent outcomes. The weighted sample is not a count of trades.
Luck reference: 21 of 21 represented trade dates; upper tail 5.862e-6; corrected within the horizon 9.787e-3, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 1.611e-2. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 1 windows, with 1 wins and upper tail 5.635e-1.
This rank comes from 13 purchases and 0 sales, measured over 63 trading days after disclosure. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
14 trade dates · 2 nonoverlapping windows · 2 stocks. Shared stock moves and overlapping windows are not separate tests of skill.
Bought AIRSMar 23, 2026$145,500
Stock +44.9%; recorded comparison +16.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +29.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 23, 2026 · $145,500 · Form 4Stock +44.9% versus the recorded factor comparison +16.0%.
Bought AIRSMar 20, 2026$110,800
Stock +65.5%; recorded comparison +26.5%; outcome in the trade's direction +39.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 20, 2026 · $110,800 · Form 4Stock +65.5% versus the recorded factor comparison +26.5%.
Bought AIRSMar 19, 2026$205,133
Stock +78.9%; recorded comparison +36.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +42.9%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 19, 2026 · $205,133 · Form 4Stock +78.9% versus the recorded factor comparison +36.0%.
Bought AIRSMar 17, 2026$212,480
Stock +72.4%; recorded comparison +37.7%; outcome in the trade's direction +34.7%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 17, 2026 · $212,480 · Form 4Stock +72.4% versus the recorded factor comparison +37.7%.
Bought AIRSMar 16, 2026$257,211
Stock +81.1%; recorded comparison +45.4%; outcome in the trade's direction +35.7%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 16, 2026 · $257,211 · Form 4Stock +81.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +45.4%.
Bought AIRSMar 11, 2026$189,200
Stock +119.9%; recorded comparison +46.5%; outcome in the trade's direction +73.5%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 11, 2026 · $189,200 · Form 4Stock +119.9% versus the recorded factor comparison +46.5%.
Bought AIRSMar 6, 2026$91,200
Stock +144.2%; recorded comparison +60.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +84.2%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 6, 2026 · $91,200 · Form 4Stock +144.2% versus the recorded factor comparison +60.0%.
Bought AIRSMar 3, 2026$192,900
Stock +181.7%; recorded comparison +86.7%; outcome in the trade's direction +95.1%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
Mar 4, 2026 · $56,100 · Form 4Stock +181.7% versus the recorded factor comparison +86.7%.
Mar 3, 2026 · $136,800 · Form 4Stock +181.7% versus the recorded factor comparison +86.7%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0002042077. Profile company CIK 0001274737. EXAGEN INC.
13 obs. Confidence 80; 63-day hit rate 100.0%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Separate past-calls measure (3 months · sample 23.2):
Past calls: 57% directionally correct over 3 months (adjusted toward 50% peer prior; 64% observed; recency-weighted sample 23.2)
Descriptive statistic of past trades, not a prediction
How to read these past calls · As of 2026-11-13
Bullish calls are correct after outperformance; bearish calls are correct after underperformance, relative to SPY. Only directional buy and sell signals are graded. Gifts, grants and tax withholding are excluded. Recent outcomes receive more weight, with a half-life of 252 trading days. The peer prior contributes 24 equivalent outcomes. The weighted sample is not a count of trades.
Luck reference: 13 of 13 represented trade dates; upper tail 7.301e-6; corrected within the horizon 9.787e-3, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 1.673e-2. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 2 windows, with 2 wins and upper tail 1.621e-1.
This rank comes from 33 purchases and 0 sales, measured over 63 trading days after disclosure. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
33 trade dates · 2 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Bought RKTJun 3, 2024$4,083
Stock +36.0%; recorded comparison +21.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +14.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 3, 2024 · $4,083 · Form 4Stock +36.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +21.6%.
Bought RKTApr 9, 2024$1,839
Stock +15.1%; recorded comparison +11.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +3.5%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Apr 9, 2024 · $1,839 · Form 4Stock +15.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +11.6%.
Bought RKTJun 20, 2024$4,296
Stock +33.5%; recorded comparison +31.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +2.5%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 20, 2024 · $4,296 · Form 4Stock +33.5% versus the recorded factor comparison +31.0%.
Bought RKTMar 11, 2024$4,321
Stock +19.2%; recorded comparison +16.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +2.6%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 11, 2024 · $4,321 · Form 4Stock +19.2% versus the recorded factor comparison +16.6%.
Bought RKTMar 18, 2024$4,379
Stock +2.7%; recorded comparison +7.5%; outcome in the trade's direction -4.7%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 18, 2024 · $4,379 · Form 4Stock +2.7% versus the recorded factor comparison +7.5%.
Bought RKTApr 25, 2024$4,212
Stock +29.9%; recorded comparison +26.4%; outcome in the trade's direction +3.5%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Apr 25, 2024 · $4,212 · Form 4Stock +29.9% versus the recorded factor comparison +26.4%.
Bought RKTMay 20, 2024$353
Stock +40.3%; recorded comparison +26.2%; outcome in the trade's direction +14.1%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 20, 2024 · $353 · Form 4Stock +40.3% versus the recorded factor comparison +26.2%.
Bought RKTMar 28, 2024$4,386
Stock -5.1%; recorded comparison -8.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +3.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 28, 2024 · $4,386 · Form 4Stock -5.1% versus the recorded factor comparison -8.1%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 1817213. Profile company CIK ticker:RKT. RKT
33 obs. Confidence 98; 63-day hit rate 78.8%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Separate past-calls measure (3 months · sample 32.7):
Past calls: 71% directionally correct over 3 months (adjusted toward 50% peer prior; 86% observed; recency-weighted sample 32.7)
Descriptive statistic of past trades, not a prediction
How to read these past calls · As of 2026-11-13
Bullish calls are correct after outperformance; bearish calls are correct after underperformance, relative to SPY. Only directional buy and sell signals are graded. Gifts, grants and tax withholding are excluded. Recent outcomes receive more weight, with a half-life of 252 trading days. The peer prior contributes 24 equivalent outcomes. The weighted sample is not a count of trades.
Luck reference: 26 of 33 represented trade dates; upper tail 7.440e-6; corrected within the horizon 9.787e-3, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 1.673e-2. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 2 windows, with 2 wins and upper tail 1.621e-1.
One entry per filing selected from the current 90-day scored feed. Derivatives and known open-market trades below $10,000 are excluded from conviction scoring. These are reported transactions, not live trades. A trade score and an insider's historical Alpha IQ measure different things.