As of Nov 13, 2026. At least 3 observations, ranked by Alpha IQ over 252 trading days. 2,856 eligible records before the optional luck filter.
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#1 Timothy Regan
0 buys · 34 sales · 252 trading days
Alpha IQ99.3
Why this rank?
32 of 34 worked
Unlikely under model
Unlikely under the luck model.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 34 sales, measured over 252 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
34 trade dates · 2 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold DBXDec 29, 2023$88,630
Stock +3.4%; recorded comparison +33.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +30.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Dec 29, 2023 · $88,630 · Form 4Stock +3.4% versus the recorded factor comparison +33.8%.
Sold DBXDec 15, 2023$88,222
Stock -1.1%; recorded comparison +26.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +27.1%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Dec 15, 2023 · $88,222 · Form 4Stock -1.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +26.0%.
Sold DBXNov 30, 2023$84,217
Stock +1.3%; recorded comparison +24.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +22.8%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Nov 30, 2023 · $84,217 · Form 4Stock +1.3% versus the recorded factor comparison +24.1%.
Sold DBXJan 16, 2024$93,863
Stock -1.7%; recorded comparison +29.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +31.5%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jan 16, 2024 · $93,863 · Form 4Stock -1.7% versus the recorded factor comparison +29.8%.
Sold DBXDec 13, 2024$74,975
Stock -6.9%; recorded comparison +6.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +12.9%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Dec 13, 2024 · $74,975 · Form 4Stock -6.9% versus the recorded factor comparison +6.0%.
Sold DBXOct 15, 2024$65,443
Stock +13.1%; recorded comparison +18.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +5.7%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Oct 15, 2024 · $65,443 · Form 4Stock +13.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +18.8%.
Sold DBXMar 27, 2024$73,074
Stock +13.0%; recorded comparison +22.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +9.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 27, 2024 · $73,074 · Form 4Stock +13.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +22.0%.
Sold DBXAug 30, 2024$75,443
Stock +27.6%; recorded comparison +31.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +3.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Aug 30, 2024 · $75,443 · Form 4Stock +27.6% versus the recorded factor comparison +31.0%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001734440. Profile company CIK 0001467623. DROPBOX, INC.
Recorded role: CFO · DBX.
34 obs. Confidence 99; 252-day hit rate 94.1%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Separate past-calls measure (3 months · sample 21.7):
Past calls: 60% directionally correct over 3 months (adjusted toward 50% peer prior; 70% observed; recency-weighted sample 21.7)
Descriptive statistic of past trades, not a prediction
How to read these past calls · As of 2026-11-13
Bullish calls are correct after outperformance; bearish calls are correct after underperformance, relative to SPY. Only directional buy and sell signals are graded. Gifts, grants and tax withholding are excluded. Recent outcomes receive more weight, with a half-life of 252 trading days. The peer prior contributes 24 equivalent outcomes. The weighted sample is not a count of trades.
Luck reference: 32 of 34 represented trade dates; upper tail 2.548e-5; corrected within the horizon 1.055e-2, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 3.655e-2. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 2 windows, with 2 wins and upper tail 3.905e-1.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 21 sales, measured over 252 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
26 trade dates · 1 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold CCOIMay 29, 2025$1,172,593
Stock -61.9%; recorded comparison +58.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +120.9%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 29, 2025 · $1,172,593 · Form 4Stock -61.9% versus the recorded factor comparison +58.9%.
Sold CCOIMay 28, 2025$948,174
Stock -62.8%; recorded comparison +63.5%; outcome in the trade's direction +126.2%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 28, 2025 · $948,174 · Form 4Stock -62.8% versus the recorded factor comparison +63.5%.
Sold CCOIMay 27, 2025$973,322
Stock -62.0%; recorded comparison +64.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +126.1%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 27, 2025 · $973,322 · Form 4Stock -62.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +64.1%.
Sold CCOIMay 23, 2025$1,173,318
Stock -59.7%; recorded comparison +62.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +122.6%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 23, 2025 · $1,173,318 · Form 4Stock -59.7% versus the recorded factor comparison +62.9%.
Sold CCOIMay 22, 2025$1,156,768
Stock -53.9%; recorded comparison +60.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +113.9%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 22, 2025 · $1,156,768 · Form 4Stock -53.9% versus the recorded factor comparison +60.0%.
Sold CCOIMay 21, 2025$1,872,248
Stock -56.5%; recorded comparison +56.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +113.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 21, 2025 · $1,872,248 · Form 4Stock -56.5% versus the recorded factor comparison +56.9%.
Sold CCOIMay 20, 2025$749,348
Stock -60.6%; recorded comparison +58.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +118.6%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 20, 2025 · $749,348 · Form 4Stock -60.6% versus the recorded factor comparison +58.0%.
Sold CCOIMay 16, 2025$764,925
Stock -64.4%; recorded comparison +48.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +113.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 16, 2025 · $764,925 · Form 4Stock -64.4% versus the recorded factor comparison +48.6%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001166976. Profile company CIK 0001158324. COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC.
Recorded role: CEO · CCOI.
21 obs. Confidence 93; 252-day hit rate 100.0%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Separate past-calls measure (3 months · sample 18.9):
Past calls: 70% directionally correct over 3 months (adjusted toward 50% peer prior; 95% observed; recency-weighted sample 18.9)
Descriptive statistic of past trades, not a prediction
How to read these past calls · As of 2026-11-13
Bullish calls are correct after outperformance; bearish calls are correct after underperformance, relative to SPY. Only directional buy and sell signals are graded. Gifts, grants and tax withholding are excluded. Recent outcomes receive more weight, with a half-life of 252 trading days. The peer prior contributes 24 equivalent outcomes. The weighted sample is not a count of trades.
Luck reference: 21 of 21 represented trade dates; upper tail 5.146e-5; corrected within the horizon 1.470e-2, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 5.534e-2. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 1 windows, with 1 wins and upper tail 6.249e-1.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 21 sales, measured over 252 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
21 trade dates · 1 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold MRNAMar 13, 2024$669,527
Stock -67.9%; recorded comparison +7.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +75.5%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 13, 2024 · $669,527 · Form 4Stock -67.9% versus the recorded factor comparison +7.6%.
Sold MRNAMay 8, 2024$240,741
Stock -79.5%; recorded comparison +21.3%; outcome in the trade's direction +100.9%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 8, 2024 · $240,741 · Form 4Stock -79.5% versus the recorded factor comparison +21.3%.
Sold MRNAJun 26, 2024$301,814
Stock -74.5%; recorded comparison +37.2%; outcome in the trade's direction +111.7%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 26, 2024 · $301,814 · Form 4Stock -74.5% versus the recorded factor comparison +37.2%.
Sold MRNAJun 18, 2024$224,782
Stock -79.9%; recorded comparison +36.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +116.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 18, 2024 · $224,782 · Form 4Stock -79.9% versus the recorded factor comparison +36.6%.
Sold MRNAJun 11, 2024$24,268,230
Stock -82.0%; recorded comparison +37.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +119.2%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 11, 2024 · $24,268,230 · Form 4Stock -82.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +37.1%.
Sold MRNAJun 5, 2024$131,323
Stock -81.6%; recorded comparison +37.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +119.5%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 5, 2024 · $131,323 · Form 4Stock -81.6% versus the recorded factor comparison +37.9%.
Sold MRNAMay 29, 2024$141,010
Stock -80.9%; recorded comparison +31.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +112.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 29, 2024 · $141,010 · Form 4Stock -80.9% versus the recorded factor comparison +31.1%.
Sold MRNAMay 22, 2024$14,295
Stock -83.8%; recorded comparison +37.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +120.9%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 22, 2024 · $14,295 · Form 4Stock -83.8% versus the recorded factor comparison +37.0%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001222012. Profile company CIK 0001682852. Moderna, Inc.
21 obs. Confidence 93; 252-day hit rate 100.0%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Separate past-calls measure (3 months · sample 11.1):
Past calls: 54% directionally correct over 3 months (adjusted toward 50% peer prior; 63% observed; recency-weighted sample 11.1)
Descriptive statistic of past trades, not a prediction
How to read these past calls · As of 2026-11-13
Bullish calls are correct after outperformance; bearish calls are correct after underperformance, relative to SPY. Only directional buy and sell signals are graded. Gifts, grants and tax withholding are excluded. Recent outcomes receive more weight, with a half-life of 252 trading days. The peer prior contributes 24 equivalent outcomes. The weighted sample is not a count of trades.
Luck reference: 21 of 21 represented trade dates; upper tail 5.146e-5; corrected within the horizon 1.470e-2, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 5.534e-2. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 1 windows, with 1 wins and upper tail 6.249e-1.
This rank comes from 19 purchases and 0 sales, measured over 252 trading days after disclosure. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
19 trade dates · 2 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Bought BWFGMay 30, 2024$1,602
Stock +41.7%; recorded comparison +19.7%; outcome in the trade's direction +22.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 30, 2024 · $1,602 · Form 4Stock +41.7% versus the recorded factor comparison +19.7%.
Bought BWFGDec 6, 2024$7,567
Stock +49.2%; recorded comparison +39.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +9.6%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Dec 6, 2024 · $7,567 · Form 4Stock +49.2% versus the recorded factor comparison +39.6%.
Bought BWFGSep 10, 2024$3,857
Stock +49.2%; recorded comparison +42.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +6.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Sep 10, 2024 · $3,857 · Form 4Stock +49.2% versus the recorded factor comparison +42.8%.
Bought BWFGDec 14, 2023$15,455
Stock +8.2%; recorded comparison +18.5%; outcome in the trade's direction -10.2%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Dec 14, 2023 · $15,455 · Form 4Stock +8.2% versus the recorded factor comparison +18.5%.
Bought BWFGMay 28, 2024$45,109
Stock +42.8%; recorded comparison +21.4%; outcome in the trade's direction +21.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 28, 2024 · $45,109 · Form 4Stock +42.8% versus the recorded factor comparison +21.4%.
Bought BWFGMay 22, 2024$486
Stock +44.9%; recorded comparison +21.5%; outcome in the trade's direction +23.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 22, 2024 · $486 · Form 4Stock +44.9% versus the recorded factor comparison +21.5%.
Bought BWFGSep 6, 2024$3,263
Stock +53.5%; recorded comparison +44.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +8.7%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Sep 6, 2024 · $3,263 · Form 4Stock +53.5% versus the recorded factor comparison +44.9%.
Bought BWFGSep 11, 2024$3,924
Stock +43.7%; recorded comparison +38.2%; outcome in the trade's direction +5.5%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Sep 11, 2024 · $3,924 · Form 4Stock +43.7% versus the recorded factor comparison +38.2%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001026081. Profile company CIK 0001505732. Bankwell Financial Group, Inc.
19 obs. Confidence 91; 252-day hit rate 89.5%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Separate past-calls measure (3 months · sample 78.4):
Past calls: 73% directionally correct over 3 months (adjusted toward 50% peer prior; 79% observed; recency-weighted sample 78.4)
Descriptive statistic of past trades, not a prediction
How to read these past calls · As of 2026-11-13
Bullish calls are correct after outperformance; bearish calls are correct after underperformance, relative to SPY. Only directional buy and sell signals are graded. Gifts, grants and tax withholding are excluded. Recent outcomes receive more weight, with a half-life of 252 trading days. The peer prior contributes 24 equivalent outcomes. The weighted sample is not a count of trades.
Luck reference: 17 of 19 represented trade dates; upper tail 1.520e-6; corrected within the horizon 1.447e-3, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 4.700e-3. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 2 windows, with 1 wins and upper tail 5.806e-1.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 17 sales, measured over 252 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
17 trade dates · 1 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold DORMJan 10, 2025$35,198
Stock +2.4%; recorded comparison +40.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +37.6%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jan 10, 2025 · $35,198 · Form 4Stock +2.4% versus the recorded factor comparison +40.0%.
Sold DORMSep 24, 2024$154,463
Stock +37.1%; recorded comparison +40.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +3.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Sep 24, 2024 · $154,463 · Form 4Stock +37.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +40.1%.
Sold DORMJan 24, 2025$594,316
Stock -7.5%; recorded comparison +28.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +35.5%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jan 24, 2025 · $594,316 · Form 4Stock -7.5% versus the recorded factor comparison +28.0%.
Sold DORMDec 26, 2024$348,925
Stock -6.8%; recorded comparison +28.2%; outcome in the trade's direction +35.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Dec 26, 2024 · $348,925 · Form 4Stock -6.8% versus the recorded factor comparison +28.2%.
Sold DORMDec 16, 2024$918,622
Stock -3.7%; recorded comparison +31.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +34.8%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Dec 16, 2024 · $918,622 · Form 4Stock -3.7% versus the recorded factor comparison +31.1%.
Sold DORMOct 11, 2024$264,736
Stock +22.4%; recorded comparison +29.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +6.7%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Oct 11, 2024 · $264,736 · Form 4Stock +22.4% versus the recorded factor comparison +29.0%.
Sold DORMSep 16, 2024$1,777,429
Stock +35.2%; recorded comparison +37.7%; outcome in the trade's direction +2.5%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Sep 16, 2024 · $1,777,429 · Form 4Stock +35.2% versus the recorded factor comparison +37.7%.
Sold DORMJan 22, 2025$342,333
Stock -6.6%; recorded comparison +30.7%; outcome in the trade's direction +37.3%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jan 22, 2025 · $342,333 · Form 4Stock -6.6% versus the recorded factor comparison +30.7%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001205405. Profile company CIK 0000868780. Dorman Products, Inc.
17 obs. Confidence 88; 252-day hit rate 100.0%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Luck reference: 17 of 17 represented trade dates; upper tail 3.376e-4; corrected within the horizon 4.192e-2, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 1.415e-1. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 1 windows, with 1 wins and upper tail 6.249e-1.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 17 sales, measured over 252 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
22 trade dates · 1 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold SGAApr 3, 2025$151
Stock -0.7%; recorded comparison +34.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +35.5%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
Apr 3, 2025 · $38 · Form 4Stock -0.7% versus SPY +34.8%.
Apr 4, 2025 · $113 · Form 4Stock -0.7% versus SPY +34.8%.
Sold SGAApr 1, 2025$19,214
Stock -7.1%; recorded comparison +22.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +30.0%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
Apr 2, 2025 · $18,834 · Form 4Stock -7.1% versus SPY +22.8%.
Apr 1, 2025 · $380 · Form 4Stock -7.1% versus SPY +22.8%.
Sold SGAJun 25, 2025$57,713
Stock -29.6%; recorded comparison +21.4%; outcome in the trade's direction +51.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 25, 2025 · $57,713 · Form 4Stock -29.6% versus SPY +21.4%.
Sold SGAJun 16, 2025$1,038
Stock -30.8%; recorded comparison +24.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +55.4%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
Jun 16, 2025 · $625 · Form 4Stock -30.8% versus SPY +24.6%.
Jun 17, 2025 · $413 · Form 4Stock -30.8% versus SPY +24.6%.
Sold SGAJun 12, 2025$3,873
Stock -27.4%; recorded comparison +22.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +50.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 12, 2025 · $3,873 · Form 4Stock -27.4% versus SPY +22.9%.
Sold SGAJun 11, 2025$886
Stock -29.0%; recorded comparison +25.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +54.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 11, 2025 · $886 · Form 4Stock -29.0% versus SPY +25.0%.
Sold SGAJun 5, 2025$121,853
Stock -26.1%; recorded comparison +21.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +47.1%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 5, 2025 · $121,853 · Form 4Stock -26.1% versus SPY +21.0%.
Sold SGAJul 25, 2025$24,107
Stock -33.9%; recorded comparison +14.5%; outcome in the trade's direction +48.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jul 25, 2025 · $24,107 · Form 4Stock -33.9% versus SPY +14.5%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001944397. Profile company CIK 0000886136. SAGA COMMUNICATIONS INC
Recorded role: 10% Owner · SGA.
17 obs. Confidence 88; 252-day hit rate 100.0%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Separate past-calls measure (3 months · sample 21.5):
Past calls: 68% directionally correct over 3 months (adjusted toward 50% peer prior; 88% observed; recency-weighted sample 21.5)
Descriptive statistic of past trades, not a prediction
How to read these past calls · As of 2026-11-13
Bullish calls are correct after outperformance; bearish calls are correct after underperformance, relative to SPY. Only directional buy and sell signals are graded. Gifts, grants and tax withholding are excluded. Recent outcomes receive more weight, with a half-life of 252 trading days. The peer prior contributes 24 equivalent outcomes. The weighted sample is not a count of trades.
Luck reference: 17 of 17 represented trade dates; upper tail 3.376e-4; corrected within the horizon 4.192e-2, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 1.415e-1. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 1 windows, with 1 wins and upper tail 6.249e-1.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 17 sales, measured over 252 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
17 trade dates · 2 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold TENBFeb 27, 2024$52,013
Stock -21.0%; recorded comparison +2.7%; outcome in the trade's direction +23.7%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Feb 27, 2024 · $52,013 · Form 4Stock -21.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +2.7%.
Sold TENBMay 21, 2024$35,711
Stock -25.8%; recorded comparison +8.2%; outcome in the trade's direction +34.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 21, 2024 · $35,711 · Form 4Stock -25.8% versus the recorded factor comparison +8.2%.
Sold TENBNov 28, 2023$39,999
Stock +1.6%; recorded comparison +6.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +5.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Nov 28, 2023 · $39,999 · Form 4Stock +1.6% versus the recorded factor comparison +6.6%.
Sold TENBNov 22, 2023$33,080
Stock +3.1%; recorded comparison +14.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +11.8%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Nov 22, 2023 · $33,080 · Form 4Stock +3.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +14.8%.
Sold TENBMay 28, 2024$41,728
Stock -24.3%; recorded comparison +7.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +31.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 28, 2024 · $41,728 · Form 4Stock -24.3% versus the recorded factor comparison +7.1%.
Sold TENBMay 23, 2024$102,380
Stock -25.0%; recorded comparison +7.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +32.9%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 23, 2024 · $102,380 · Form 4Stock -25.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +7.9%.
Sold TENBMar 20, 2024$530,376
Stock -24.7%; recorded comparison -6.7%; outcome in the trade's direction +18.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 20, 2024 · $530,376 · Form 4Stock -24.7% versus the recorded factor comparison -6.7%.
Sold TENBFeb 23, 2024$80,276
Stock -19.5%; recorded comparison +5.3%; outcome in the trade's direction +24.8%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Feb 23, 2024 · $80,276 · Form 4Stock -19.5% versus the recorded factor comparison +5.3%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001651579. Profile company CIK 0001660280. Tenable Holdings, Inc.
Recorded role: CEO · TENB.
17 obs. Confidence 88; 252-day hit rate 100.0%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Luck reference: 17 of 17 represented trade dates; upper tail 3.376e-4; corrected within the horizon 4.192e-2, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 1.415e-1. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 2 windows, with 2 wins and upper tail 3.905e-1.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 17 sales, measured over 252 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
17 trade dates · 1 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold LMFAJun 20, 2024$2,685
Stock -53.9%; recorded comparison +11.5%; outcome in the trade's direction +65.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 20, 2024 · $2,685 · Form 4Stock -53.9% versus SPY +11.5%.
Sold LMFAJun 5, 2024$1,655
Stock -62.8%; recorded comparison +12.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +75.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 5, 2024 · $1,655 · Form 4Stock -62.8% versus SPY +12.6%.
Sold LMFAMay 22, 2024$1,725
Stock -49.7%; recorded comparison +11.7%; outcome in the trade's direction +61.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 22, 2024 · $1,725 · Form 4Stock -49.7% versus SPY +11.7%.
Sold LMFAMay 8, 2024$1,192
Stock -23.4%; recorded comparison +12.7%; outcome in the trade's direction +36.1%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 8, 2024 · $1,192 · Form 4Stock -23.4% versus SPY +12.7%.
Sold LMFAApr 24, 2024$1,415
Stock -45.2%; recorded comparison +9.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +54.3%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Apr 24, 2024 · $1,415 · Form 4Stock -45.2% versus SPY +9.1%.
Sold LMFAApr 10, 2024$1,635
Stock -57.8%; recorded comparison +4.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +61.9%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Apr 10, 2024 · $1,635 · Form 4Stock -57.8% versus SPY +4.1%.
Sold LMFAMar 27, 2024$1,461
Stock -65.3%; recorded comparison +7.2%; outcome in the trade's direction +72.5%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 27, 2024 · $1,461 · Form 4Stock -65.3% versus SPY +7.2%.
Sold LMFAMar 13, 2024$1,630
Stock -52.8%; recorded comparison +11.2%; outcome in the trade's direction +64.1%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 13, 2024 · $1,630 · Form 4Stock -52.8% versus SPY +11.2%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001742160. Profile company CIK 0001640384. LM FUNDING AMERICA, INC.
Recorded role: President · LMFA.
17 obs. Confidence 88; 252-day hit rate 94.1%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Luck reference: 16 of 17 represented trade dates; upper tail 3.783e-3; corrected within the horizon 1.895e-1, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 5.316e-1. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 1 windows, with 1 wins and upper tail 6.249e-1.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 17 sales, measured over 252 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
18 trade dates · 2 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold PLMROct 15, 2024$100,580
Stock +17.5%; recorded comparison +47.7%; outcome in the trade's direction +30.3%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Oct 15, 2024 · $100,580 · Form 4Stock +17.5% versus the recorded factor comparison +47.7%.
Sold PLMRJan 22, 2025$112,940
Stock +15.9%; recorded comparison +44.3%; outcome in the trade's direction +28.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jan 22, 2025 · $112,940 · Form 4Stock +15.9% versus the recorded factor comparison +44.3%.
Sold PLMRJul 16, 2025$71,550
Stock -6.0%; recorded comparison +26.7%; outcome in the trade's direction +32.7%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jul 16, 2025 · $71,550 · Form 4Stock -6.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +26.7%.
Sold PLMRMar 14, 2024$55,701
Stock +57.5%; recorded comparison +60.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +2.6%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 14, 2024 · $55,701 · Form 4Stock +57.5% versus the recorded factor comparison +60.1%.
Sold PLMRAug 18, 2025$154,737
Stock +4.0%; recorded comparison +33.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +29.6%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
Aug 20, 2025 · $60,795 · Form 4Stock +4.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +33.6%.
Aug 18, 2025 · $93,942 · Form 4Stock +4.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +33.6%.
Sold PLMRSep 17, 2024$100,683
Stock +20.3%; recorded comparison +40.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +20.5%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Sep 17, 2024 · $100,683 · Form 4Stock +20.3% versus the recorded factor comparison +40.8%.
Sold PLMRAug 23, 2024$173,250
Stock +25.0%; recorded comparison +44.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +19.8%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Aug 23, 2024 · $173,250 · Form 4Stock +25.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +44.9%.
Sold PLMRAug 6, 2024$164,500
Stock +28.1%; recorded comparison +42.7%; outcome in the trade's direction +14.6%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Aug 6, 2024 · $164,500 · Form 4Stock +28.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +42.7%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001772379. Profile company CIK 0001761312. Palomar Holdings, Inc.
Recorded role: CFO · PLMR.
17 obs. Confidence 88; 252-day hit rate 94.1%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Separate past-calls measure (3 months · sample 17.1):
Past calls: 50% directionally correct over 3 months (adjusted toward 50% peer prior; 51% observed; recency-weighted sample 17.1)
Descriptive statistic of past trades, not a prediction
How to read these past calls · As of 2026-11-13
Bullish calls are correct after outperformance; bearish calls are correct after underperformance, relative to SPY. Only directional buy and sell signals are graded. Gifts, grants and tax withholding are excluded. Recent outcomes receive more weight, with a half-life of 252 trading days. The peer prior contributes 24 equivalent outcomes. The weighted sample is not a count of trades.
Luck reference: 16 of 17 represented trade dates; upper tail 3.783e-3; corrected within the horizon 1.895e-1, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 5.316e-1. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 2 windows, with 2 wins and upper tail 3.905e-1.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 21 sales, measured over 252 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
21 trade dates · 2 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold SSTIMar 11, 2024$2,592
Stock -7.3%; recorded comparison +9.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +16.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 11, 2024 · $2,592 · Form 4Stock -7.3% versus the recorded factor comparison +9.1%.
Sold SSTIAug 28, 2024$4,986
Stock -17.5%; recorded comparison +3.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +21.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Aug 28, 2024 · $4,986 · Form 4Stock -17.5% versus the recorded factor comparison +3.9%.
Sold SSTINov 28, 2023$7,380
Stock -40.1%; recorded comparison +31.3%; outcome in the trade's direction +71.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Nov 28, 2023 · $7,380 · Form 4Stock -40.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +31.3%.
Sold SSTIJun 10, 2024$2,344
Stock +10.9%; recorded comparison +8.5%; outcome in the trade's direction -2.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 10, 2024 · $2,344 · Form 4Stock +10.9% versus the recorded factor comparison +8.5%.
Sold SSTIJun 3, 2024$11,614
Stock +11.8%; recorded comparison +8.4%; outcome in the trade's direction -3.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 3, 2024 · $11,614 · Form 4Stock +11.8% versus the recorded factor comparison +8.4%.
Sold SSTIMay 20, 2024$6,071
Stock -0.2%; recorded comparison -11.6%; outcome in the trade's direction -11.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 20, 2024 · $6,071 · Form 4Stock -0.2% versus the recorded factor comparison -11.6%.
Sold SSTIMar 7, 2024$1,887
Stock -8.5%; recorded comparison +9.5%; outcome in the trade's direction +18.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 7, 2024 · $1,887 · Form 4Stock -8.5% versus the recorded factor comparison +9.5%.
Sold SSTIAug 18, 2025$5,403
Stock -50.0%; recorded comparison -12.3%; outcome in the trade's direction +37.8%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Aug 18, 2025 · $5,403 · Form 4Stock -50.0% versus the recorded factor comparison -12.3%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001769017. Profile company CIK 0001351636. SOUNDTHINKING, INC.
Recorded role: Officer · SSTI.
21 obs. Confidence 93; 252-day hit rate 81.0%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Separate past-calls measure (3 months · sample 11.1):
Past calls: 57% directionally correct over 3 months (adjusted toward 50% peer prior; 71% observed; recency-weighted sample 11.1)
Descriptive statistic of past trades, not a prediction
How to read these past calls · As of 2026-11-13
Bullish calls are correct after outperformance; bearish calls are correct after underperformance, relative to SPY. Only directional buy and sell signals are graded. Gifts, grants and tax withholding are excluded. Recent outcomes receive more weight, with a half-life of 252 trading days. The peer prior contributes 24 equivalent outcomes. The weighted sample is not a count of trades.
Luck reference: 17 of 21 represented trade dates; upper tail 5.941e-2; corrected within the horizon 5.105e-1, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 1.000e+0. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 2 windows, with 2 wins and upper tail 3.905e-1.
One entry per filing selected from the current 90-day scored feed. Derivatives and known open-market trades below $10,000 are excluded from conviction scoring. These are reported transactions, not live trades. A trade score and an insider's historical Alpha IQ measure different things.