As of Nov 13, 2026. At least 3 observations, ranked by Alpha IQ over 126 trading days. 4,241 eligible records before the optional luck filter.
Link an account to see your stake.
#1 Anthony Li Hsieh
0 buys · 39 sales · 126 trading days
Alpha IQ99.6
Why this rank?
37 of 39 worked
Unlikely under model
Unlikely under the luck model.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 39 sales, measured over 126 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
40 trade dates · 3 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold LDIDec 2, 2024$290,949
Stock -43.0%; recorded comparison +22.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +65.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Dec 2, 2024 · $290,949 · Form 4Stock -43.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +22.1%.
Sold LDIDec 6, 2024$119,876
Stock -37.4%; recorded comparison +13.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +50.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Dec 6, 2024 · $119,876 · Form 4Stock -37.4% versus the recorded factor comparison +13.0%.
Sold LDIMay 24, 2024$150,515
Stock +32.0%; recorded comparison +28.2%; outcome in the trade's direction -3.8%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 24, 2024 · $150,515 · Form 4Stock +32.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +28.2%.
Sold LDIMar 17, 2025$654,372
Stock +221.1%; recorded comparison +157.5%; outcome in the trade's direction -63.6%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 17, 2025 · $654,372 · Form 4Stock +221.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +157.5%.
Sold LDIJun 14, 2024$107,126
Stock +19.1%; recorded comparison +30.4%; outcome in the trade's direction +11.3%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 14, 2024 · $107,126 · Form 4Stock +19.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +30.4%.
Sold LDIJun 12, 2024$211,119
Stock +15.0%; recorded comparison +27.4%; outcome in the trade's direction +12.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 12, 2024 · $211,119 · Form 4Stock +15.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +27.4%.
Sold LDIJun 10, 2024$323,403
Stock +6.5%; recorded comparison +24.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +18.1%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 10, 2024 · $323,403 · Form 4Stock +6.5% versus the recorded factor comparison +24.6%.
Sold LDIJun 3, 2024$90,265
Stock +1.8%; recorded comparison +24.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +23.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 3, 2024 · $90,265 · Form 4Stock +1.8% versus the recorded factor comparison +24.8%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001655400. Profile company CIK 0001831631. loanDepot, Inc.
Recorded role: CEO · LDI.
39 obs. Confidence 99; 126-day hit rate 94.9%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Separate past-calls measure (3 months · sample 28.7):
Past calls: 59% directionally correct over 3 months (adjusted toward 50% peer prior; 66% observed; recency-weighted sample 28.7)
Descriptive statistic of past trades, not a prediction
How to read these past calls · As of 2026-11-13
Bullish calls are correct after outperformance; bearish calls are correct after underperformance, relative to SPY. Only directional buy and sell signals are graded. Gifts, grants and tax withholding are excluded. Recent outcomes receive more weight, with a half-life of 252 trading days. The peer prior contributes 24 equivalent outcomes. The weighted sample is not a count of trades.
Luck reference: 37 of 39 represented trade dates; upper tail 3.652e-7; corrected within the horizon 7.744e-4, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 1.806e-3. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 3 windows, with 3 wins and upper tail 2.018e-1.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 40 sales, measured over 126 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
42 trade dates · 1 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold ATUSDec 3, 2024$6,258,332
Stock -13.7%; recorded comparison +12.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +25.7%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Dec 3, 2024 · $6,258,332 · Form 4Stock -13.7% versus the recorded factor comparison +12.1%.
Sold ATUSDec 5, 2024$6,258,332
Stock -14.3%; recorded comparison +9.3%; outcome in the trade's direction +23.6%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Dec 5, 2024 · $6,258,332 · Form 4Stock -14.3% versus the recorded factor comparison +9.3%.
Sold ATUSNov 15, 2024$6,258,332
Stock -4.2%; recorded comparison +8.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +12.3%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Nov 15, 2024 · $6,258,332 · Form 4Stock -4.2% versus the recorded factor comparison +8.1%.
Sold ATUSNov 29, 2024$6,258,332
Stock -14.1%; recorded comparison +9.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +23.7%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Nov 29, 2024 · $6,258,332 · Form 4Stock -14.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +9.6%.
Sold ATUSDec 24, 2024$6,258,355
Stock -10.6%; recorded comparison +18.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +28.8%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Dec 24, 2024 · $6,258,355 · Form 4Stock -10.6% versus the recorded factor comparison +18.1%.
Sold ATUSDec 20, 2024$12,516,710
Stock -14.8%; recorded comparison +13.5%; outcome in the trade's direction +28.3%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
Dec 23, 2024 · $6,258,355 · Form 4Stock -14.8% versus the recorded factor comparison +13.5%.
Dec 20, 2024 · $6,258,355 · Form 4Stock -14.8% versus the recorded factor comparison +13.5%.
Sold ATUSDec 19, 2024$6,258,355
Stock -19.7%; recorded comparison +10.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +30.5%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Dec 19, 2024 · $6,258,355 · Form 4Stock -19.7% versus the recorded factor comparison +10.8%.
Sold ATUSDec 17, 2024$6,258,355
Stock -13.6%; recorded comparison +8.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +22.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Dec 17, 2024 · $6,258,355 · Form 4Stock -13.6% versus the recorded factor comparison +8.8%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001709662. Profile company CIK 0001454938. Teads Holding Co.
40 obs. Confidence 99; 126-day hit rate 85.0%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Separate past-calls measure (3 months · sample 12.6):
Past calls: 35% directionally correct over 3 months (adjusted toward 50% peer prior; 5% observed; recency-weighted sample 12.6)
Descriptive statistic of past trades, not a prediction
How to read these past calls · As of 2026-11-13
Bullish calls are correct after outperformance; bearish calls are correct after underperformance, relative to SPY. Only directional buy and sell signals are graded. Gifts, grants and tax withholding are excluded. Recent outcomes receive more weight, with a half-life of 252 trading days. The peer prior contributes 24 equivalent outcomes. The weighted sample is not a count of trades.
Luck reference: 34 of 40 represented trade dates; upper tail 3.303e-4; corrected within the horizon 8.088e-2, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 1.415e-1. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 1 windows, with 0 wins and upper tail 1.000e+0.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 28 sales, measured over 126 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
35 trade dates · 2 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold SGAApr 3, 2025$151
Stock +10.6%; recorded comparison +32.7%; outcome in the trade's direction +22.1%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
Apr 3, 2025 · $38 · Form 4Stock +10.6% versus SPY +32.7%.
Apr 4, 2025 · $113 · Form 4Stock +10.6% versus SPY +32.7%.
Sold SGAApr 1, 2025$19,214
Stock +3.9%; recorded comparison +24.7%; outcome in the trade's direction +20.8%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
Apr 2, 2025 · $18,834 · Form 4Stock +3.9% versus SPY +24.7%.
Apr 1, 2025 · $380 · Form 4Stock +3.9% versus SPY +24.7%.
Sold SGAJun 16, 2025$1,038
Stock -6.5%; recorded comparison +12.4%; outcome in the trade's direction +18.9%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
Jun 16, 2025 · $625 · Form 4Stock -6.5% versus SPY +12.4%.
Jun 17, 2025 · $413 · Form 4Stock -6.5% versus SPY +12.4%.
Sold SGAJun 12, 2025$3,873
Stock -6.7%; recorded comparison +13.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +19.6%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 12, 2025 · $3,873 · Form 4Stock -6.7% versus SPY +13.0%.
Sold SGAJun 11, 2025$886
Stock -6.7%; recorded comparison +14.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +20.9%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 11, 2025 · $886 · Form 4Stock -6.7% versus SPY +14.1%.
Sold SGAJun 5, 2025$121,853
Stock -4.2%; recorded comparison +14.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +18.2%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 5, 2025 · $121,853 · Form 4Stock -4.2% versus SPY +14.0%.
Sold SGAJul 25, 2025$24,107
Stock -14.5%; recorded comparison +9.2%; outcome in the trade's direction +23.7%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jul 25, 2025 · $24,107 · Form 4Stock -14.5% versus SPY +9.2%.
Sold SGAJul 23, 2025$7,919
Stock -16.5%; recorded comparison +8.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +25.1%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jul 23, 2025 · $7,919 · Form 4Stock -16.5% versus SPY +8.6%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001944397. Profile company CIK 0000886136. SAGA COMMUNICATIONS INC
Recorded role: 10% Owner · SGA.
28 obs. Confidence 97; 126-day hit rate 100.0%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Separate past-calls measure (3 months · sample 21.5):
Past calls: 68% directionally correct over 3 months (adjusted toward 50% peer prior; 88% observed; recency-weighted sample 21.5)
Descriptive statistic of past trades, not a prediction
How to read these past calls · As of 2026-11-13
Bullish calls are correct after outperformance; bearish calls are correct after underperformance, relative to SPY. Only directional buy and sell signals are graded. Gifts, grants and tax withholding are excluded. Recent outcomes receive more weight, with a half-life of 252 trading days. The peer prior contributes 24 equivalent outcomes. The weighted sample is not a count of trades.
Luck reference: 28 of 28 represented trade dates; upper tail 3.256e-7; corrected within the horizon 7.744e-4, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 1.806e-3. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 2 windows, with 2 wins and upper tail 3.440e-1.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 21 sales, measured over 126 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
27 trade dates · 3 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold MHKAug 7, 2024$102,883
Stock -18.5%; recorded comparison -5.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +12.7%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Aug 7, 2024 · $102,883 · Form 4Stock -18.5% versus the recorded factor comparison -5.8%.
Sold MHKDec 13, 2023$423,387
Stock +5.8%; recorded comparison +12.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +6.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Dec 13, 2023 · $423,387 · Form 4Stock +5.8% versus the recorded factor comparison +12.1%.
Sold MHKJun 14, 2024$201,132
Stock +12.7%; recorded comparison +1.4%; outcome in the trade's direction -11.3%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 14, 2024 · $201,132 · Form 4Stock +12.7% versus the recorded factor comparison +1.4%.
Sold MHKAug 22, 2025$106,336
Stock -4.9%; recorded comparison +4.2%; outcome in the trade's direction +9.1%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Aug 22, 2025 · $106,336 · Form 4Stock -4.9% versus the recorded factor comparison +4.2%.
Sold MHKAug 19, 2025$192,684
Stock -0.0%; recorded comparison +8.4%; outcome in the trade's direction +8.4%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
Aug 19, 2025 · $97,177 · Form 4Stock -0.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +8.4%.
Aug 19, 2025 · $95,507 · Form 4Stock -0.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +8.4%.
Sold MHKDec 13, 2024$511,008
Stock -17.5%; recorded comparison -12.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +5.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Dec 13, 2024 · $511,008 · Form 4Stock -17.5% versus the recorded factor comparison -12.1%.
Sold MHKDec 10, 2024$322,327
Stock -24.5%; recorded comparison -11.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +13.5%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Dec 10, 2024 · $322,327 · Form 4Stock -24.5% versus the recorded factor comparison -11.1%.
Sold MHKDec 3, 2024$270,962
Stock -19.4%; recorded comparison -11.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +7.6%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Dec 3, 2024 · $270,962 · Form 4Stock -19.4% versus the recorded factor comparison -11.8%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001271373. Profile company CIK 0000851968. MOHAWK INDUSTRIES INC
Recorded role: Possible Member of Group · MHK.
21 obs. Confidence 93; 126-day hit rate 95.2%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Separate past-calls measure (3 months · sample 42.9):
Past calls: 49% directionally correct over 3 months (adjusted toward 50% peer prior; 49% observed; recency-weighted sample 42.9)
Descriptive statistic of past trades, not a prediction
How to read these past calls · As of 2026-11-13
Bullish calls are correct after outperformance; bearish calls are correct after underperformance, relative to SPY. Only directional buy and sell signals are graded. Gifts, grants and tax withholding are excluded. Recent outcomes receive more weight, with a half-life of 252 trading days. The peer prior contributes 24 equivalent outcomes. The weighted sample is not a count of trades.
Luck reference: 20 of 21 represented trade dates; upper tail 2.154e-4; corrected within the horizon 6.525e-2, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 1.239e-1. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 3 windows, with 3 wins and upper tail 2.018e-1.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 21 sales, measured over 126 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
26 trade dates · 1 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold CCOIMay 29, 2025$1,172,593
Stock -58.3%; recorded comparison +28.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +87.2%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 29, 2025 · $1,172,593 · Form 4Stock -58.3% versus the recorded factor comparison +28.9%.
Sold CCOIMay 28, 2025$948,174
Stock -60.0%; recorded comparison +27.5%; outcome in the trade's direction +87.5%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 28, 2025 · $948,174 · Form 4Stock -60.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +27.5%.
Sold CCOIMay 27, 2025$973,322
Stock -61.7%; recorded comparison +29.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +90.9%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 27, 2025 · $973,322 · Form 4Stock -61.7% versus the recorded factor comparison +29.1%.
Sold CCOIMay 23, 2025$1,173,318
Stock -65.1%; recorded comparison +33.2%; outcome in the trade's direction +98.3%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 23, 2025 · $1,173,318 · Form 4Stock -65.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +33.2%.
Sold CCOIMay 22, 2025$1,156,768
Stock -63.6%; recorded comparison +35.3%; outcome in the trade's direction +99.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 22, 2025 · $1,156,768 · Form 4Stock -63.6% versus the recorded factor comparison +35.3%.
Sold CCOIMay 21, 2025$1,872,248
Stock -63.7%; recorded comparison +29.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +93.2%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 21, 2025 · $1,872,248 · Form 4Stock -63.7% versus the recorded factor comparison +29.6%.
Sold CCOIMay 20, 2025$749,348
Stock -63.1%; recorded comparison +26.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +89.7%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 20, 2025 · $749,348 · Form 4Stock -63.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +26.6%.
Sold CCOIMay 16, 2025$764,925
Stock -62.9%; recorded comparison +16.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +79.1%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 16, 2025 · $764,925 · Form 4Stock -62.9% versus the recorded factor comparison +16.1%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001166976. Profile company CIK 0001158324. COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC.
Recorded role: CEO · CCOI.
21 obs. Confidence 93; 126-day hit rate 100.0%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Separate past-calls measure (3 months · sample 18.9):
Past calls: 70% directionally correct over 3 months (adjusted toward 50% peer prior; 95% observed; recency-weighted sample 18.9)
Descriptive statistic of past trades, not a prediction
How to read these past calls · As of 2026-11-13
Bullish calls are correct after outperformance; bearish calls are correct after underperformance, relative to SPY. Only directional buy and sell signals are graded. Gifts, grants and tax withholding are excluded. Recent outcomes receive more weight, with a half-life of 252 trading days. The peer prior contributes 24 equivalent outcomes. The weighted sample is not a count of trades.
Luck reference: 21 of 21 represented trade dates; upper tail 1.363e-5; corrected within the horizon 9.635e-3, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 2.248e-2. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 1 windows, with 1 wins and upper tail 5.866e-1.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 21 sales, measured over 126 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
21 trade dates · 1 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold MRNAJul 10, 2024$710,089
Stock -71.1%; recorded comparison +34.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +105.1%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jul 10, 2024 · $710,089 · Form 4Stock -71.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +34.1%.
Sold MRNAMay 8, 2024$240,741
Stock -60.1%; recorded comparison +22.4%; outcome in the trade's direction +82.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 8, 2024 · $240,741 · Form 4Stock -60.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +22.4%.
Sold MRNAMar 13, 2024$669,527
Stock -33.4%; recorded comparison -5.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +27.8%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 13, 2024 · $669,527 · Form 4Stock -33.4% versus the recorded factor comparison -5.6%.
Sold MRNAMay 29, 2024$141,010
Stock -69.8%; recorded comparison +33.4%; outcome in the trade's direction +103.2%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 29, 2024 · $141,010 · Form 4Stock -69.8% versus the recorded factor comparison +33.4%.
Sold MRNAJun 12, 2024$100,079
Stock -70.1%; recorded comparison +35.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +106.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 12, 2024 · $100,079 · Form 4Stock -70.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +35.9%.
Sold MRNAMay 15, 2024$563,357
Stock -72.3%; recorded comparison +24.4%; outcome in the trade's direction +96.7%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 15, 2024 · $563,357 · Form 4Stock -72.3% versus the recorded factor comparison +24.4%.
Sold MRNAJun 26, 2024$301,814
Stock -66.2%; recorded comparison +29.3%; outcome in the trade's direction +95.5%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 26, 2024 · $301,814 · Form 4Stock -66.2% versus the recorded factor comparison +29.3%.
Sold MRNAJun 18, 2024$224,782
Stock -70.3%; recorded comparison +29.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +100.1%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 18, 2024 · $224,782 · Form 4Stock -70.3% versus the recorded factor comparison +29.8%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001222012. Profile company CIK 0001682852. Moderna, Inc.
21 obs. Confidence 93; 126-day hit rate 100.0%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Separate past-calls measure (3 months · sample 11.1):
Past calls: 54% directionally correct over 3 months (adjusted toward 50% peer prior; 63% observed; recency-weighted sample 11.1)
Descriptive statistic of past trades, not a prediction
How to read these past calls · As of 2026-11-13
Bullish calls are correct after outperformance; bearish calls are correct after underperformance, relative to SPY. Only directional buy and sell signals are graded. Gifts, grants and tax withholding are excluded. Recent outcomes receive more weight, with a half-life of 252 trading days. The peer prior contributes 24 equivalent outcomes. The weighted sample is not a count of trades.
Luck reference: 21 of 21 represented trade dates; upper tail 1.363e-5; corrected within the horizon 9.635e-3, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 2.248e-2. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 1 windows, with 1 wins and upper tail 5.866e-1.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 19 sales, measured over 126 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
41 trade dates · 2 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold NPWROct 28, 2025$3,702,732
Stock -50.1%; recorded comparison +1.7%; outcome in the trade's direction +51.8%.
3 reported lines and filing sources
Oct 30, 2025 · $435,068 · Form 4Stock -50.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +1.7%.
Oct 29, 2025 · $3,239,073 · Form 4Stock -50.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +1.7%.
Oct 28, 2025 · $28,592 · Form 4Stock -50.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +1.7%.
Sold NPWROct 23, 2025$1,922,282
Stock -50.7%; recorded comparison -9.3%; outcome in the trade's direction +41.4%.
3 reported lines and filing sources
Oct 23, 2025 · $1,048,357 · Form 4Stock -50.7% versus the recorded factor comparison -9.3%.
Oct 27, 2025 · $753,240 · Form 4Stock -50.7% versus the recorded factor comparison -9.3%.
Oct 24, 2025 · $120,684 · Form 4Stock -50.7% versus the recorded factor comparison -9.3%.
Sold NPWROct 20, 2025$1,681,952
Stock -48.4%; recorded comparison -13.7%; outcome in the trade's direction +34.6%.
3 reported lines and filing sources
Oct 20, 2025 · $719,258 · Form 4Stock -48.4% versus the recorded factor comparison -13.7%.
Oct 21, 2025 · $668,362 · Form 4Stock -48.4% versus the recorded factor comparison -13.7%.
Oct 22, 2025 · $294,332 · Form 4Stock -48.4% versus the recorded factor comparison -13.7%.
Sold NPWROct 15, 2025$1,147,219
Stock -59.0%; recorded comparison -19.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +40.0%.
3 reported lines and filing sources
Oct 15, 2025 · $483,210 · Form 4Stock -59.0% versus the recorded factor comparison -19.0%.
Oct 16, 2025 · $65,692 · Form 4Stock -59.0% versus the recorded factor comparison -19.0%.
Oct 15, 2025 · $598,316 · Form 4Stock -59.0% versus the recorded factor comparison -19.0%.
Sold NPWRNov 20, 2025$387,919
Stock -20.6%; recorded comparison -7.2%; outcome in the trade's direction +13.5%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
Nov 21, 2025 · $42,928 · Form 4Stock -20.6% versus the recorded factor comparison -7.2%.
Nov 20, 2025 · $344,991 · Form 4Stock -20.6% versus the recorded factor comparison -7.2%.
Sold NPWRNov 17, 2025$1,593,479
Stock -23.7%; recorded comparison -8.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +14.8%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
Nov 17, 2025 · $951,479 · Form 4Stock -23.7% versus the recorded factor comparison -8.9%.
Nov 19, 2025 · $642,000 · Form 4Stock -23.7% versus the recorded factor comparison -8.9%.
Sold NPWROct 31, 2025$107,348
Stock -42.4%; recorded comparison -12.0%; outcome in the trade's direction +30.5%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
Nov 3, 2025 · $33,929 · Form 4Stock -42.4% versus the recorded factor comparison -12.0%.
Oct 31, 2025 · $73,419 · Form 4Stock -42.4% versus the recorded factor comparison -12.0%.
Sold NPWRDec 24, 2025$375,632
Stock -25.4%; recorded comparison -7.1%; outcome in the trade's direction +18.3%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Dec 24, 2025 · $375,632 · Form 4Stock -25.4% versus the recorded factor comparison -7.1%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001981772. Profile company CIK 0001845437. Net Power Inc.
19 obs. Confidence 91; 126-day hit rate 94.7%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Separate past-calls measure (3 months · sample 47.2):
Past calls: 77% directionally correct over 3 months (adjusted toward 50% peer prior; 91% observed; recency-weighted sample 47.2)
Descriptive statistic of past trades, not a prediction
How to read these past calls · As of 2026-11-13
Bullish calls are correct after outperformance; bearish calls are correct after underperformance, relative to SPY. Only directional buy and sell signals are graded. Gifts, grants and tax withholding are excluded. Recent outcomes receive more weight, with a half-life of 252 trading days. The peer prior contributes 24 equivalent outcomes. The weighted sample is not a count of trades.
Luck reference: 18 of 19 represented trade dates; upper tail 5.702e-4; corrected within the horizon 9.308e-2, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 1.929e-1. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 2 windows, with 2 wins and upper tail 3.440e-1.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 18 sales, measured over 126 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
30 trade dates · 2 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold MEDPMay 24, 2024$3,828,058
Stock -13.6%; recorded comparison +33.3%; outcome in the trade's direction +46.9%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
May 24, 2024 · $1,575,742 · Form 4Stock -13.6% versus the recorded factor comparison +33.3%.
May 28, 2024 · $2,252,316 · Form 4Stock -13.6% versus the recorded factor comparison +33.3%.
Sold MEDPMay 22, 2024$22,000
Stock -13.5%; recorded comparison +29.5%; outcome in the trade's direction +43.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 22, 2024 · $22,000 · Form 4Stock -13.5% versus the recorded factor comparison +29.5%.
Sold MEDPMay 20, 2024$1,608,764
Stock -16.3%; recorded comparison +24.5%; outcome in the trade's direction +40.9%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 20, 2024 · $1,608,764 · Form 4Stock -16.3% versus the recorded factor comparison +24.5%.
Sold MEDPMay 15, 2024$15,924,222
Stock -21.0%; recorded comparison +26.3%; outcome in the trade's direction +47.3%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
May 15, 2024 · $13,078,407 · Form 4Stock -21.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +26.3%.
May 16, 2024 · $2,845,815 · Form 4Stock -21.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +26.3%.
Sold MEDPMay 10, 2024$1,996,723
Stock -9.5%; recorded comparison +30.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +40.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 10, 2024 · $1,996,723 · Form 4Stock -9.5% versus the recorded factor comparison +30.9%.
Sold MEDPMay 8, 2024$3,310,566
Stock -7.0%; recorded comparison +28.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +35.9%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
May 8, 2024 · $1,915,574 · Form 4Stock -7.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +28.8%.
May 9, 2024 · $1,394,993 · Form 4Stock -7.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +28.8%.
Sold MEDPMay 6, 2024$21,129,347
Stock -7.6%; recorded comparison +23.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +31.5%.
2 reported lines and filing sources
May 7, 2024 · $11,338,383 · Form 4Stock -7.6% versus the recorded factor comparison +23.9%.
May 6, 2024 · $9,790,964 · Form 4Stock -7.6% versus the recorded factor comparison +23.9%.
Sold MEDPJul 28, 2025$21,901,093
Stock +33.5%; recorded comparison +11.7%; outcome in the trade's direction -21.8%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jul 28, 2025 · $21,901,093 · Form 4Stock +33.5% versus the recorded factor comparison +11.7%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001622058. Profile company CIK 0001668397. Medpace Holdings, Inc.
Recorded role: CEO · MEDP.
18 obs. Confidence 89; 126-day hit rate 94.4%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Separate past-calls measure (3 months · sample 21.2):
Past calls: 60% directionally correct over 3 months (adjusted toward 50% peer prior; 72% observed; recency-weighted sample 21.2)
Descriptive statistic of past trades, not a prediction
How to read these past calls · As of 2026-11-13
Bullish calls are correct after outperformance; bearish calls are correct after underperformance, relative to SPY. Only directional buy and sell signals are graded. Gifts, grants and tax withholding are excluded. Recent outcomes receive more weight, with a half-life of 252 trading days. The peer prior contributes 24 equivalent outcomes. The weighted sample is not a count of trades.
Luck reference: 17 of 18 represented trade dates; upper tail 9.245e-4; corrected within the horizon 1.271e-1, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 2.459e-1. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 2 windows, with 1 wins and upper tail 8.291e-1.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 17 sales, measured over 126 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
17 trade dates · 2 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold LMFAJun 20, 2024$2,685
Stock -53.5%; recorded comparison +7.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +61.2%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 20, 2024 · $2,685 · Form 4Stock -53.5% versus SPY +7.6%.
Sold LMFAJun 5, 2024$1,655
Stock -38.3%; recorded comparison +13.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +52.1%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Jun 5, 2024 · $1,655 · Form 4Stock -38.3% versus SPY +13.8%.
Sold LMFAMay 22, 2024$1,725
Stock -3.4%; recorded comparison +12.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +16.3%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 22, 2024 · $1,725 · Form 4Stock -3.4% versus SPY +12.9%.
Sold LMFAMay 8, 2024$1,192
Stock +27.4%; recorded comparison +14.3%; outcome in the trade's direction -13.1%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 8, 2024 · $1,192 · Form 4Stock +27.4% versus SPY +14.3%.
Sold LMFAApr 24, 2024$1,415
Stock +2.6%; recorded comparison +13.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +11.4%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Apr 24, 2024 · $1,415 · Form 4Stock +2.6% versus SPY +13.9%.
Sold LMFAApr 10, 2024$1,635
Stock -21.6%; recorded comparison +11.2%; outcome in the trade's direction +32.8%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Apr 10, 2024 · $1,635 · Form 4Stock -21.6% versus SPY +11.2%.
Sold LMFAMar 27, 2024$1,461
Stock -19.9%; recorded comparison +9.3%; outcome in the trade's direction +29.2%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 27, 2024 · $1,461 · Form 4Stock -19.9% versus SPY +9.3%.
Sold LMFAMar 13, 2024$1,630
Stock -22.3%; recorded comparison +10.4%; outcome in the trade's direction +32.7%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 13, 2024 · $1,630 · Form 4Stock -22.3% versus SPY +10.4%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001742160. Profile company CIK 0001640384. LM FUNDING AMERICA, INC.
Recorded role: President · LMFA.
17 obs. Confidence 88; 126-day hit rate 94.1%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Luck reference: 16 of 17 represented trade dates; upper tail 1.495e-3; corrected within the horizon 1.669e-1, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 3.362e-1. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 2 windows, with 2 wins and upper tail 3.440e-1.
This rank comes from 0 purchases and 19 sales, measured over 126 trading days after disclosure. It is a sales-only record. The score describes these past outcomes; it does not establish forecasting skill.
○ Buy · ◆ Sale · solid line: mean. Right of zero means a purchase beat its recorded comparison, or a sale lagged it.
19 trade dates · 4 nonoverlapping windows · 1 stock. One stock's trend can produce several wins.
Sold TENBMay 21, 2024$35,711
Stock -3.0%; recorded comparison +11.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +14.8%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 21, 2024 · $35,711 · Form 4Stock -3.0% versus the recorded factor comparison +11.8%.
Sold TENBNov 20, 2024$33,504
Stock -24.2%; recorded comparison -5.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +18.5%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Nov 20, 2024 · $33,504 · Form 4Stock -24.2% versus the recorded factor comparison -5.8%.
Sold TENBAug 26, 2024$36,465
Stock -8.3%; recorded comparison +9.6%; outcome in the trade's direction +17.9%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Aug 26, 2024 · $36,465 · Form 4Stock -8.3% versus the recorded factor comparison +9.6%.
Sold TENBAug 26, 2025$75,823
Stock -37.1%; recorded comparison +0.9%; outcome in the trade's direction +38.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Aug 26, 2025 · $75,823 · Form 4Stock -37.1% versus the recorded factor comparison +0.9%.
Sold TENBAug 25, 2025$862,125
Stock -34.4%; recorded comparison +1.8%; outcome in the trade's direction +36.2%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Aug 25, 2025 · $862,125 · Form 4Stock -34.4% versus the recorded factor comparison +1.8%.
Sold TENBMay 23, 2024$102,380
Stock -0.5%; recorded comparison +14.2%; outcome in the trade's direction +14.7%.
1 reported line and filing sources
May 23, 2024 · $102,380 · Form 4Stock -0.5% versus the recorded factor comparison +14.2%.
Sold TENBMar 20, 2024$530,376
Stock -17.2%; recorded comparison -10.2%; outcome in the trade's direction +7.0%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Mar 20, 2024 · $530,376 · Form 4Stock -17.2% versus the recorded factor comparison -10.2%.
Sold TENBFeb 27, 2024$52,013
Stock -13.8%; recorded comparison -7.5%; outcome in the trade's direction +6.2%.
1 reported line and filing sources
Feb 27, 2024 · $52,013 · Form 4Stock -13.8% versus the recorded factor comparison -7.5%.
Technical details
Stored snapshot 2026-11-13; calculation insider-iq-person-score.v3. Each mark averages only the filed lines sharing the production score's decision or entry window. Its stored score and counts are checked against these inputs before the record is drawn.
Insider CIK 0001651579. Profile company CIK 0001660280. Tenable Holdings, Inc.
Recorded role: CEO · TENB.
19 obs. Confidence 91; 126-day hit rate 84.2%. Confidence measures the sample, not a probability of future success.
Luck reference: 16 of 19 represented trade dates; upper tail 1.738e-2; corrected within the horizon 5.496e-1, across 24734 person/horizon comparisons 9.291e-1. Overlapping windows, shared stocks and a reference estimated from the same history limit this interpretation. The nonoverlapping sensitivity keeps 4 windows, with 3 wins and upper tail 4.521e-1.
One entry per filing selected from the current 90-day scored feed. Derivatives and known open-market trades below $10,000 are excluded from conviction scoring. These are reported transactions, not live trades. A trade score and an insider's historical Alpha IQ measure different things.