CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INC/RI

Our Consolidated Financial Statements included in this Report are prepared in accordance with GAAP, requiring us to establish accounting policies and make estimates and assumptions that affect reported amounts.

An accounting estimate requires assumptions and judgments about uncertain matters that could have a material effect on our Consolidated Financial Statements. Estimates are made using facts and circumstances known at a point in time. Changes in those facts and circumstances could produce results substantially different from those estimates. Our most significant accounting policies and estimates and their related application are discussed below. For additional information regarding fair value measurements and goodwill, see “Critical Accounting Estimates” in our 2025 Form 10-K.

The ACL of $2.2 billion at March 31, 2026 increased $2 million compared to December 31, 2025, reflecting consideration for economic uncertainty and targeted risk concerns, partially offset by improved loan mix, given runoff of certain retail portfolios, and lower general office reserves.

As of March 31, 2026, our ACL economic forecast over a two-year reasonable and supportable period contemplates a mild recession, reflecting uncertainties related to the implementation of tariffs and protectionist trade policies, inflationary pressures, the impact of higher energy prices, and geopolitical tensions. This forecast is generally applied to the retail and commercial and industrial portfolios and projects peak unemployment of approximately 5.3% and a start-to-trough real GDP decline of approximately 0.5%, consistent with peak unemployment and start-to-trough real GDP decline projections at December 31, 2025. More severe economic scenarios are applied to certain portfolios, such as CRE general office, with peak unemployment of approximately 9.5% and a start-to-trough real GDP decline of approximately 4.4%, compared to peak unemployment of approximately 9.4% and a start-to-trough real GDP decline of approximately 4.4% at December 31, 2025.

Our determination of the ACL is sensitive to changes in forecasted macroeconomic conditions during the reasonable and supportable forecast period. To illustrate this sensitivity, we applied a more pessimistic scenario than that described above which reflects deeper real GDP contraction across our two-year reasonable and supportable forecast period with peak unemployment of approximately 6.8% and a start-to-trough real GDP decline of approximately 2.1%. Excluding consideration of qualitative adjustments, this scenario would result in a quantitative lifetime loss estimate of approximately 1.4x our modeled period-end ACL, or an increase of approximately $700 million. This analysis relates only to the modeled credit loss estimate and not to the overall period-end ACL, which includes qualitative adjustments.

Because several quantitative and qualitative factors are considered in determining the ACL, this sensitivity analysis does not necessarily reflect the nature and extent of future changes in the ACL or even what the ACL would be under these economic circumstances. The sensitivity analysis is intended to provide insights into the impact of adverse changes in the macroeconomic environment and the corresponding impact to modeled loss estimates. The hypothetical determination does not incorporate the impact of management judgment or other qualitative factors that could be applied in the actual estimation of the ACL and does not imply any expectation of future deterioration in our loss rates.

It remains difficult to estimate how changes in economic forecasts might affect our ACL because such forecasts consider a wide variety of variables and inputs, and changes in the variables and inputs may not occur at the same time or in the same direction, and such changes may have differing impacts by product type. The variables and inputs may be idiosyncratically affected by risks to the economy, including changing monetary and fiscal policies and inflationary trends. Changes in one or multiple of the key macroeconomic variables may have a material impact on our estimation of expected credit losses.

For additional information regarding the ACL, see Note 4 and “Critical Accounting Estimates - Allowance for Credit Losses” and Note 4 in our 2025 Form 10-K.