CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INC/RI

Our Consolidated Financial Statements included in this Report are prepared in accordance with GAAP, requiring us to establish accounting policies and make estimates and assumptions that affect reported amounts.

An accounting estimate requires assumptions and judgments about uncertain matters that could have a material effect on our Consolidated Financial Statements. Estimates are made using facts and circumstances known at a point in time. Changes in those facts and circumstances could produce results substantially different from those estimates. Our most significant accounting policies and estimates include the ACL, fair value measurements and the evaluation and measurement of goodwill impairment. For additional information regarding fair value measurements and goodwill, see “Critical Accounting Estimates” in our 2024 Form 10-K.

Allowance for Credit Losses

The ACL of $2.2 billion at March 31, 2025 decreased slightly compared to December 31, 2024 given improving loan mix, reflecting the reduction of the Non-Core portfolio, reduced CRE and lower loss-content originations.

As of March 31, 2025, our ACL economic forecast over a two-year reasonable and supportable period reflects a mild recession inclusive of uncertainties related to the implementation of tariffs and protectionist trade policies, inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions. This forecast projects peak unemployment of approximately 5.1%, consistent with December 31, 2024, and a start-to-trough real GDP decline of approximately 0.5% and 0.4% at March 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024, respectively, and is generally applied to the retail and commercial and industrial portfolios. More severe economic scenarios are applied within the CRE portfolio, such as general office, with peak unemployment of approximately 9.3% and start-to-trough real GDP decline of approximately 4.4% at March 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024.

Our determination of the ACL is sensitive to changes in forecasted macroeconomic conditions during the reasonable and supportable forecast period. To illustrate the sensitivity, we applied a more pessimistic scenario than that described above which reflects deeper real GDP contraction across our two-year reasonable and supportable forecast period with peak unemployment of approximately 6.3% and start-to-trough real GDP decline of approximately 2.0%. Excluding consideration of qualitative adjustments, this scenario would result in a quantitative lifetime loss estimate of approximately 1.2x our modeled period-end ACL, or an increase of approximately $470 million. This analysis relates only to the modeled credit loss estimate and not to the overall period-end ACL, which includes qualitative adjustments.

Because several quantitative and qualitative factors are considered in determining the ACL, this sensitivity analysis does not necessarily reflect the nature and extent of future changes in the ACL or even what the ACL would be under these economic circumstances. The sensitivity analysis is intended to provide insights into the impact of adverse changes in the macroeconomic environment and the corresponding impact to modeled loss estimates. The hypothetical determination does not incorporate the impact of management judgment or other qualitative factors that could be applied in the actual estimation of the ACL and does not imply any expectation of future deterioration in our loss rates.

It remains difficult to estimate how changes in economic forecasts might affect our ACL because such forecasts consider a wide variety of variables and inputs, and changes in the variables and inputs may not occur at the same time or in the same direction, and such changes may have differing impacts by product type. The variables and inputs may be idiosyncratically affected by risks to the economy, including changing monetary and fiscal policies, impacts from the recent stress on the banking industry, and their impact on inflationary trends. Changes in one or multiple of the key macroeconomic variables may have a material impact on our estimation of expected credit losses.

For additional information regarding the ACL, see Note 4 and “Critical Accounting Estimates - Allowance for Credit Losses” and Note 6 in our 2024 Form 10-K.