CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INCRI

Market risk refers to potential losses arising from changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, commodity prices and/or other relevant market rates or prices. Modest market risk arises from trading activities that serve customer needs, including the hedging of interest rate and foreign exchange risk. As described below, the market risk arising from our non-trading banking activities, such as the origination of loans and deposit-gathering, is more significant. We have established enterprise-wide policies and methodologies to identify, measure, monitor and report market risk. We actively manage market risk for both non-trading and trading activities.

Non-Trading Risk

Our non-trading banking activities expose us to market risk. This market risk is composed of interest rate risk, as we have no commodity risk and de minimis direct currency and equity risk. We also have market risk related to capital markets loan originations, as well as the valuation of our MSRs. There have been no significant changes in our sources of interest rate risk, interest rate risk practices, risk framework, metrics or assumptions as described in “Market Risk — Non-Trading Risk” in our 2023 Form 10-K.

The table below presents the sensitivity of net interest income to various parallel yield curve shifts from the market implied forward yield curve. Our policies involve measuring exposures as a percentage change in net interest income over the next year due to either instantaneous or gradual parallel changes in rates relative to the market implied forward yield curve. As the following table illustrates, our balance sheet is asset sensitive; net interest income would benefit from an increase in interest rates, while exposure to a decline in interest rates is within limits established and monitored by senior management. While an instantaneous and severe shift in interest rates is included in this analysis, we believe that any actual shift in interest rates would be more gradual and, therefore, have a more modest impact.

We continue to manage asset sensitivity within the scope of our policy, changing market conditions and changes in our balance sheet. The Company’s base case net interest income assumes the forward-rate path implied by the period-end yield curve is realized. The rate risk exposure is then measured based on assumed changes from that base case rate path.

Our risk position is slightly asset sensitive to a gradual change in rates as of September 30, 2024, compared to our broadly neutral position as of December 31, 2023. Our interest rate sensitivity incorporates the impacts of changes in our balance sheet mix, including securities, loans, deposits, borrowed funds and hedge activity, which is primarily comprised of received fixed swaps that offset our naturally asset-sensitive balance sheet.

We use a valuation measure of exposure to structural interest rate risk, EVE, as a supplement to net interest income simulations. EVE complements net interest income simulation analysis as it estimates risk exposure over a long-term horizon. EVE measures the extent to which the economic value of assets, liabilities and off-balance sheet instruments may change in response to fluctuations in interest rates. This analysis is highly dependent upon assumptions applied to assets and liabilities with non-contractual maturities. We employ sophisticated models for prepayments and deposit pricing and attrition, which provide a granular view of cash flows based on the unique characteristics of the underlying products and customer segments. The change in value is expressed as a percentage of regulatory capital.

We use interest rate contracts as part of our ALM strategy to manage exposure to the variability in the interest cash flows on our floating-rate assets and wholesale funding, the variability in the fair value of AFS securities, and to hedge market risk on fixed-rate capital markets debt issuances.

The following table presents interest rate derivative contracts that we have entered into as of September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023.

(1)Weighted average floor and cap rates represents strike rates through which CFG will receive interest if the SOFR rate falls below the floor strike rate and pay interest if the SOFR rate exceeds the cap strike rate.

(2)Weighted average floor rate represents strike rates for the short and long interest rate floors, respectively. CFG will receive interest if the SOFR rate falls below the upper strike rate and pay interest if the SOFR rate falls below the lower strike rate, effectively hedging the corridor between the two strike rates. The structure also includes a short cap and a long floor which are utilized to neutralize the initial premium.

The following table presents the average active notional amounts for our interest rate derivatives, based on contract effective date, during the remainder of 2024 and for the next five years:

(1) Pay fixed rate leg of the interest rate derivative contract is included in the computation of the weighted average pay fixed rate.

(2) Receive fixed rate leg of the interest rate derivative contract is included in the computation of the weighted average receive fixed rate.

Using the September 30, 2024 interest rate curve we estimate that $621 million in pre-tax net losses related to cash flow hedge strategies will be reclassified from AOCI to net interest income over the next 12 months. These losses could differ from amounts recognized due to changes in interest rates, hedge de-designations or the addition of other hedges after September 30, 2024.

Included in AOCI is a net loss from terminated swaps of $868 million that will reduce net interest income by $137 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, $127 million in the first quarter of 2025, $119 million in the second quarter of 2025, $109 million in the third quarter of 2025, and $103 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. The remaining $273 million will reduce net interest income by $230 million in 2026 and $43 million after 2026.

Capital Markets

A key component of our capital markets activities is the underwriting and distribution of corporate credit facilities to finance merger and acquisition transactions for our clients. We have a rigorous risk management process around these activities, including a limit structure capping our underwriting risk, potential loss, and sub-limits for specific asset classes. Further, the ability to approve underwriting exposure is delegated only to senior level individuals in the credit risk management and capital markets organizations with each transaction adjudicated in the Loan Underwriting Approval Committee.

Mortgage Servicing Rights

We have market risk associated with the value of residential MSRs, which are impacted by various types of inherent risks, including duration, basis, convexity, volatility and yield curve.

As part of our overall risk management strategy we enter into various free-standing derivatives, such as interest rate swaps, interest rate swaptions, interest rate futures and forward contracts to purchase mortgage-backed securities to economically hedge the changes in fair value of our MSRs. For more information regarding the fair value of our MSRs and associated derivatives see Note 5 and Note 8.

As with our traded market risk-based activities, earnings at risk excludes the impact of MSRs. MSRs are captured under our single price risk management framework that is used for calculating a management value at risk consistent with the definition used by banking regulators.

Trading Risk

We are exposed to market risk primarily through client facilitation activities from certain derivative and foreign exchange products as well as underwriting and market making activities. Market risk exposure arises from fluctuations in interest rates, basis spreads, volatility, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, and credit spreads across various financial instruments. Securities underwriting and trading activities are conducted through CBNA and Citizens JMP Securities, LLC. There have been no significant changes in our market risk governance, market risk measurement, or market risk practices including VaR, stressed VaR, sensitivity analysis, stress testing, VaR model review and validation, or VaR backtesting as described in “Market Risk — Trading Risk” in our 2023 Form 10-K.

Market Risk Regulatory Capital

The U.S. banking regulators’ “Market Risk Rule” covers the calculation of market risk capital. Under this rule, all of our client facing trades and associated hedges maintain a net low risk and qualify as “covered positions.” The internal management VaR measure is calculated based on the same population of trades that is utilized for regulatory VaR.