CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INCRI

Our Consolidated Financial Statements included in this Report are prepared in accordance with GAAP. The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires us to establish accounting policies and make estimates that affect amounts reported in our Consolidated Financial Statements.

An accounting estimate requires assumptions and judgments about uncertain matters that could have a material effect on our Consolidated Financial Statements. Estimates are made using facts and circumstances known at a point in time. Changes in those facts and circumstances could produce results substantially different from those estimates. Our significant accounting policies and estimates include the ACL, fair value measurements and the evaluation and measurement of goodwill impairment. For additional information regarding fair value measurements, see “Critical Accounting Estimates” in our 2023 Form 10-K.

Allowance for Credit Losses

The ACL of $2.3 billion at March 31, 2024 remained stable compared to December 31, 2023.

As of March 31, 2024, the ACL accounts for an economic forecast over a two-year reasonable and supportable period with peak unemployment of approximately 4.9% and start-to-trough real GDP decline of approximately 0.3%. This forecast reflects a mild recession over the two-year reasonable and supportable period. This compares to our December 31, 2023 forecast which reflected peak unemployment of approximately 5% with a start-to-trough real GDP decline of approximately 0.4%.

Our determination of the ACL is sensitive to changes in forecasted macroeconomic conditions during the reasonable and supportable forecast period. To illustrate the sensitivity, we applied a more pessimistic scenario than that described above which reflects deeper real GDP contraction across our two-year reasonable and supportable forecast period with peak unemployment of approximately 5.4% and start-to-trough real GDP decline of approximately 1.8%. Excluding consideration of qualitative adjustments, this scenario would result in a quantitative lifetime loss estimate of approximately 1.2x our modeled period-end ACL, or an increase of approximately $370 million. This analysis relates only to the modeled credit loss estimate and not to the overall period-end ACL, which includes qualitative adjustments.

Because several quantitative and qualitative factors are considered in determining the ACL, this sensitivity analysis does not necessarily reflect the nature and extent of future changes in the ACL or even what the ACL would be under these economic circumstances. The sensitivity analysis is intended to provide insights into the impact of adverse changes in the macroeconomic environment and the corresponding impact to modeled loss estimates. The hypothetical determination does not incorporate the impact of management judgment or other qualitative factors that could be applied in the actual estimation of the ACL and does not imply any expectation of future deterioration in our loss rates.

It remains difficult to estimate how changes in economic forecasts might affect our ACL because such forecasts consider a wide variety of variables and inputs, and changes in the variables and inputs may not occur at the same time or in the same direction, and such changes may have differing impacts by product type. The variables and inputs may be idiosyncratically affected by risks to the economy, including changing monetary and fiscal policies, impacts from the recent stress on the banking industry, and their impact on inflationary trends. Changes in one or multiple of the key macroeconomic variables may have a material impact on our estimation of expected credit losses.

For additional information regarding the ACL, see Note 4 and “Critical Accounting Estimates - Allowance for Credit Losses” and Note 6 in our 2023 Form 10-K.

Goodwill

We review the goodwill of each reporting unit for impairment on an annual basis as of October 31 st or more frequently if events or circumstances change that indicate an impairment may exist. When assessing goodwill for impairment, a qualitative assessment may be made to determine whether it is more-likely-than-not that the fair value of a reporting unit is below its carrying value. For the quarter ended March 31, 2024, Citizens elected to perform a qualitative analysis to determine whether it was more-likely-than-not that the fair value of its reporting units was less than the respective reporting unit’s carrying value. As a result of this qualitative assessment, the Company concluded that it was not more-likely-than-not that the fair value of its reporting units was below their respective carrying amount and, therefore, there was no impairment to the carrying value of the Company's goodwill as of March 31, 2024.

The process of evaluating the fair value of a reporting unit is subjective, involving management assumptions, estimates and forecasts, and the use of external or internal valuations. Future potential changes in assumptions, estimates or forecasts may impact the estimated fair value of a reporting unit and cause the fair value of the reporting unit to be below its carrying value. Additionally, a reporting unit’s fair value could change based on market conditions or other factors, which could impact whether the fair value of a reporting unit is less than its carrying value.

For additional information regarding Goodwill, see “Critical Accounting Estimates - Goodwill” and Note 10 in our 2023 Form 10-K.