CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP
For the period ended Dec 31, 2023. Filed Feb 26, 2024.
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FY2023 · Filed Feb 26, 2024
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Liquidity and Capital Resources
We seek to maintain prudent levels of liquidity and financial strength for the protection of our policyholders, creditors and shareholders. We manage liquidity at two levels to meet the short- and long-term cash requirements of business obligations and growth needs. The first is the liquidity of the parent company. The second is the liquidity of our lead insurance subsidiary. Management of liquidity at both levels is essential because each has different funding needs and sources, and each is subject to certain regulatory guidelines and requirements.
In addition to our historically positive operating cash flow to meet the needs of operations, we have the ability to slow investing activities if such need arises or to sell a portion of our high-quality, liquid investment portfolio. We also have additional capacity to borrow on our revolving short-term line of credit, as described further below.
Parent Company Liquidity
At December 31, 2023, the parent company had $4.858 billion in cash and marketable securities, providing strong liquidity to fund cash outflows, as needed. The parent company’s primary sources of cash inflows are dividends from our lead insurance subsidiary, investment income and sale proceeds from investments. The parent company’s cash outflows are primarily interest and principal payments on long- and short-term debt, dividends to shareholders, common stock repurchases, deposits at Lloyd's and general operating expenses. To support our shareholders' dividend payment, we could use subsidiary dividends, our line of credit or sell a portion of our marketable securities.
The table below shows a summary, by the direct cash flow method, of the major sources and uses of cash flow of the parent company.
| (Dollars in millions) | Years ended December 31, | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
| Sources of liquidity: | |||
| Subsidiary dividends received | $526 | $729 | $598 |
| Investment income received | 107 | 99 | 90 |
| Proceeds from stock options exercised | 9 | 10 | 13 |
| Return of funds on deposit from Lloyd's | — | — | 117 |
| Uses of liquidity: | |||
| Shareholders' dividend payments | $454 | $423 | $395 |
| Share repurchases | 67 | 410 | 144 |
| Debt interest payments | 52 | 53 | 52 |
| Payment of funds on deposit at Lloyd's | — | — | 14 |
Use of liquidity for share repurchases are discretionary depending on cash availability and capital management decisions. In addition, the subsidiaries have the discretion to pay dividends to the parent company. Cincinnati Global is required to maintain certain capital funding requirements with Lloyd’s, which the parent company may deposit on its behalf. These funding requirements may fluctuate based on the profitability of Cincinnati Global and syndicate solvency capital requirements as set by Lloyd's, which may result in return of funds on deposit. Other than share repurchases and funding at Lloyd's, the majority of expenditures for the parent company have been consistent during the last three years, and we expect future expenditures to remain stable.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation - 2023 10-K - Page 94
Insurance Subsidiary Liquidity
The parent company’s lead insurance subsidiary largely represents the operations of the property casualty segments. The primary sources of cash inflows are collection of premiums, investment income, maturity of fixed-income securities and sale proceeds from investments. Property casualty insurance premiums generally are received before losses are paid under the policies purchased with those premiums. Cash outflows are primarily loss and loss expenses, commissions, salaries, taxes, operating expenses and investment purchases. Over the three-year period ended December 31, 2023, premium receipts and investment income have been more than sufficient to pay claims and operating expenses. Excess cash flows were partially used to pay dividends to the parent company. We are not aware of any known trends that would materially change historical cash flow results, other than fluctuations in catastrophe claims and other large losses, either individually or in aggregate.
The table below shows a summary of operating cash flow for property casualty insurance (direct method). Historically, annual variation in operating cash flow has been largely related to changes in amounts of catastrophe losses.
| (Dollars in millions) | Years ended December 31, | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
| Premiums collected | $7,785 | $7,054 | $6,309 |
| Loss and loss expenses paid | (4,276) | (3,687) | (3,094) |
| Commissions and other underwriting expenses paid | (2,287) | (2,132) | (1,842) |
| Cash flow from underwriting | 1,222 | 1,235 | 1,373 |
| Investment income received | 609 | 529 | 497 |
| Cash flow from operations | $1,831 | $1,764 | $1,870 |
Other Sources of Liquidity
Cash in excess of operating requirements is invested in fixed-maturity and equity securities. Cash generated from investment income provides an important investment contribution to cash flow and liquidity. The sale of investments could provide an additional source of liquidity at either the parent company or insurance subsidiary level, if required. In addition to possible sales of investments, proceeds of calls or maturities of fixed-maturity securities also can provide liquidity. During the five-year period beginning in 2024, fair value of $5.268 billion, or 38.2%, of our fixed-maturity portfolio is scheduled to mature. At December 31, 2023, we had $10.641 billion of common stock securities, with $4.542 billion, or 43%, held by the parent company.
Financial resources of the parent company also could be made available to our insurance subsidiaries, if circumstances required it. This flexibility would include our ability to access the capital markets and short-term bank borrowings. We generally have minimized our reliance on debt financing, although we may use the line of credit to fund short-term cash needs.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation - 2023 10-K - Page 95
Long-Term Debt
We provide details of our three long-term notes in Item 8, Note 8 of the Consolidated Financial Statements. None of the notes are encumbered by rating triggers. The total principal amount of our long-term debt at December 31, 2023, was $793 million and included:
$28 million aggregate principal amount of 6.900% senior debentures due 2028.
$391 million aggregate principal amount of 6.920% senior debentures due 2028.
$374 million aggregate principal amount of 6.125% senior debentures due 2034.
The company’s senior debt is rated investment grade by four independent rating agencies. None of the rating agencies made changes to our debt ratings in 2023. At February 23, 2024, our debt ratings from the rating agencies were: a from A.M. Best, A- from Fitch, A3 from Moody’s and BBB+ from S&P.
Note Payable
At December 31, 2023, we had a $300 million line of credit with commercial banks, with $25 million and $50 million borrowed at December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. That unsecured revolving line of credit has an accordion feature giving us the option to double the $300 million amount, under the same terms and conditions. Terms and conditions of the agreement include a debt-to-total capital maximum of 35% and the agreement has no net worth covenant. It was due to expire on February 4, 2024, with the option of two one-year extensions. We exercised both one-year options to extend the term of the line of credit by two additional years to February 4, 2026.
At year-end 2023, we were in compliance with all covenants under the credit agreement and believe we will remain in compliance. The credit agreement provides alternative interest charges based on the type of borrowing and our debt rating. On March 23, 2023, we amended our line of credit agreement to replace LIBOR with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) plus a credit spread adjustment.
Capital Resources
Capital resources, consisting of shareholders’ equity and total debt, represent our overall financial strength to support current obligations and growth in our insurance businesses. At December 31, 2023, we had total capital of $12.913 billion. Shareholders’ equity was $12.098 billion, an increase of $1.536 billion, or 15%, from the prior year. Our total debt was $815 million, down $24 million from a year ago. We seek to maintain a solid financial position and provide capital flexibility by keeping our ratio of debt to total capital moderate. At year-end 2023, the ratio was 6.3%, compared with 7.4% at year-end 2022.
At times we enter into letter of credit agreements to support our Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global operations. We have an unsecured letter of credit agreement to provide a portion of the capital needed to support Cincinnati Global's obligations at Lloyd's. The amount of this unsecured letter of credit agreement was $94 million with no amounts drawn at December 31, 2023.
At the discretion of the board of directors, the company can return capital directly to shareholders asdiscussed below.
Dividends to shareholders – The ability of our company to continue paying cash dividends is subject to factors the board of directors deems relevant. While the board and management believe there is merit to sustaining the company’s long record of dividend increases, our first priority is the company’s financial strength. Over the past 10 years, the company has paid an average of 34% of net income as dividends. Through 2023, the board had increased our cash dividend for 63 consecutive years. The board's decision in January 2024 to increase the dividend demonstrated confidence in the company’s strong capital, liquidity, financial flexibility and initiatives to grow earnings.
Common stock repurchase – Generally, our board believes that share repurchases can help fulfill our commitment to enhancing shareholder value. Consequently, the board has authorized the repurchase of outstanding shares, giving management discretion to purchase shares at reasonable prices in light of circumstances at the time of purchase. Our approach has been to hold capital adequate to support future growth of our insurance operations and repurchase shares at management's discretion. Repurchases are intended to offset the issuance of shares through equity compensation plans, primarily due to vesting of service-based restricted stock units of equity awards granted in the past. The amount of future repurchases may be more, or less, than the past, depending on circumstances and discretion exercised by management. Our corporate Code of Conduct restricts repurchases during certain time periods. The details of the repurchase authorizations and activity are described in
Cincinnati Financial Corporation - 2023 10-K - Page 96
Item 5, Market for the Registrant’s Common Equity, Related Stockholder Matters and Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities.
Obligations
We pay obligations to customers, suppliers and associates in the normal course of our business operations. Some are contractual obligations that define the amount, circumstances and/or timing of payments. We have other commitments for business expenditures; such as $223 million we expect to fund for our private equity and real estate investments, however, the amount, circumstances and/or timing of our other commitments are not dictated by contractual arrangements.
Contractual Obligations
At December 31, 2023, we estimated our significant future contractual obligations as follows:
| (Dollars in millions) · Year · Years · There- | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payment due by period | 2024 | 2025-2028 | after | Total | ||
| Gross property casualty loss and loss expense payments | $2,963 | $4,742 | $1,270 | $8,975 | ||
| Gross life policyholder obligations | 145 | 500 | 5,709 | 6,354 | ||
| Long-term debt | — | — | 793 | 793 | ||
| Interest on long-term debt | 52 | 193 | 126 | 371 | ||
| Profit-sharing commissions | 208 | — | — | 208 | ||
| Other liabilities | 123 | 83 | 1 | 207 | ||
| Total | $3,491 | $5,518 | $7,899 | $16,908 | ||
Liquidity and Capital Resources Outlook
At December 31, 2023, we had $907 million in cash and cash equivalents. During 2024, our lead insurance subsidiary may pay a maximum of $729 million in dividends to our parent company without regulatory approval. That strong liquidity and our consistent cash flows give us the flexibility to meet current obligations and commitments while building value by prudently investing where we see potential for both current income and long-term return. Our cash and cash equivalents provide adequate financial cushion when short-term operating results do not meet our objectives.
A long-term perspective governs our liquidity and capital resources decisions, with the goal of benefiting our policyholders, agents, shareholders and associates over time. Our underwriting philosophy and initiatives can drive performance to achieve underwriting profit. Our GAAP combined ratio averaged 94.6% over the five-year period 2019 through 2023, resulting in strong underwriting profits.
In any year, we consider the most likely source of pressure on liquidity would be an unusually high level of catastrophe loss payments within a short period of time. There could be additional obligations for our insurance operations due to increasing severity or frequency of noncatastrophe claims. To address the risk of unusually large insurance loss obligations, including catastrophe events, we maintain property casualty reinsurance contracts with highly rated reinsurers, as discussed under 2024 Reinsurance Ceded Programs. We also monitor the financial condition of our reinsurers because their insolvency could jeopardize a portion of our $651 million reinsurance recoverable asset at December 31, 2023. Parent-company liquidity could also be constrained by Ohio regulatory requirements that restrict the dividends insurance subsidiaries can pay.
Economic weakness also has the potential to affect our liquidity and capital resources in a number of different ways, including delinquent payments from agencies, defaults on interest payments by fixed-maturity holdings in our portfolio, dividend reductions by holdings in our equity portfolio or declines in the market value of holdings in our portfolio.
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Off-Balance-Sheet Arrangements
We do not use any special-purpose financing vehicles or have any undisclosed off-balance-sheet arrangements (as that term is defined in applicable SEC rules) that are reasonably likely to have a current or future material effect on the company’s financial condition, results of operation, liquidity, capital expenditures or capital resources.
Property Casualty Loss and Loss Expense Obligations and Reserves
Our estimate of future gross property casualty loss and loss expense payments of $8.975 billion is lower than loss and loss expense reserves of $9.050 billion reported on our balance sheet at December 31, 2023. The $75 million difference is due to certain life and health loss reserves. Reserving practices are discussed in Critical Accounting Estimates, Property Casualty Insurance Loss and Loss Expense Reserves.
For the business lines in the commercial and personal lines insurance segments, and in total for the excess and surplus lines insurance segment and for other parts of our property casualty insurance operations, the following table details gross reserves among case, IBNR and loss expense reserves, net of salvage and subrogation. The $639 million increase in total gross reserves included an $86 million increase in case loss reserves, a $395 million increase in IBNR loss reserves and a $158 million increase in loss expense reserves. The increase in total gross reserves included $285 million for our commercial casualty line of business, $179 million for excess and surplus lines and $110 million for Cincinnati Re.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation - 2023 10-K - Page 98
Property Casualty Gross Loss and Loss Expense Reserves
| (Dollars in millions) · Loss reserves · Loss expense reserves · Total gross reserves | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case reserves · IBNR reserves · Percent of total | |||||
| Commercial lines insurance: | |||||
| Commercial casualty | $1,111 | $1,205 | $792 | $3,108 | 34.6% |
| Commercial property | 362 | 116 | 81 | 559 | 6.3 |
| Commercial auto | 418 | 303 | 142 | 863 | 9.6 |
| Workers' compensation | 431 | 540 | 89 | 1,060 | 11.8 |
| Other commercial | 143 | 26 | 128 | 297 | 3.3 |
| Subtotal | 2,465 | 2,190 | 1,232 | 5,887 | 65.6 |
| Personal lines insurance: | |||||
| Personal auto | 222 | 74 | 73 | 369 | 4.1 |
| Homeowner | 215 | 122 | 58 | 395 | 4.4 |
| Other personal | 101 | 119 | 6 | 226 | 2.5 |
| Subtotal | 538 | 315 | 137 | 990 | 11.0 |
| Excess and surplus lines | 360 | 336 | 236 | 932 | 10.4 |
| Cincinnati Re | 158 | 747 | 6 | 911 | 10.2 |
| Cincinnati Global | 141 | 111 | 3 | 255 | 2.8 |
| Total | $3,662 | $3,699 | $1,614 | $8,975 | 100.0% |
| Commercial lines insurance: | |||||
| Commercial casualty | $1,163 | $938 | $722 | $2,823 | 33.9% |
| Commercial property | 301 | 256 | 71 | 628 | 7.5 |
| Commercial auto | 449 | 258 | 131 | 838 | 10.1 |
| Workers' compensation | 434 | 521 | 85 | 1,040 | 12.4 |
| Other commercial | 98 | 16 | 125 | 239 | 2.9 |
| Subtotal | 2,445 | 1,989 | 1,134 | 5,568 | 66.8 |
| Personal lines insurance: | |||||
| Personal auto | 222 | 64 | 64 | 350 | 4.2 |
| Homeowner | 189 | 138 | 49 | 376 | 4.5 |
| Other personal | 99 | 86 | 5 | 190 | 2.3 |
| Subtotal | 510 | 288 | 118 | 916 | 11.0 |
| Excess and surplus lines | 302 | 256 | 195 | 753 | 9.0 |
| Cincinnati Re | 156 | 639 | 6 | 801 | 9.6 |
| Cincinnati Global | 163 | 132 | 3 | 298 | 3.6 |
| Total | $3,576 | $3,304 | $1,456 | $8,336 | 100.0% |
Cincinnati Financial Corporation - 2023 10-K - Page 99
Asbestos and Environmental Loss and Loss Expense Reserves
We carried $98 million of net loss and loss expense reserves for asbestos and environmental claims at year-end 2023, compared with $92 million at year-end 2022. The asbestos and environmental claims amounts for each respective year constituted less than 2.0% of total net loss and loss expense reserves at these year-end dates.
We believe our exposure to asbestos and environmental claims is limited, largely because our reinsurance retention was $500,000 or below prior to 1987. We also were predominantly a personal lines company in the 1960s and 1970s, when asbestos and pollution exclusions were not widely used by commercial lines insurers. During the 1980s and early 1990s, commercial lines grew as a percentage of our overall business and our exposure to asbestos and environmental claims grew accordingly. Over that period, we endorsed to or included in most policies an asbestos and environmental exclusion.
Additionally, since 2002, we have revised policy terms where permitted by state regulation to limit our exposure to mold claims prospectively and further reduce our exposure to other environmental claims generally. Finally, we have not engaged in any mergers or acquisitions through which such a liability could have been assumed. We continue to monitor our claims for evidence of material exposure to other mass tort classes, but we have found no such credible evidence to date.
Reserving data for asbestos and environmental claims has characteristics that limit the usefulness of the methods and models used to analyze loss and loss expense reserves for other claims. Specifically, asbestos and environmental loss and loss expenses for different accident years do not emerge independently of one another as loss development and Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods assume. In addition, asbestos and environmental loss and loss expense data available to date did not reflect a well-defined tail, greatly complicating the identification of an appropriate probabilistic trend family model. At year-end 2023, we used a weighted average of a paid survival ratio method and report year method to estimate reserves for IBNR asbestos and environmental claims. Our exposure to such claims is limited; we believe a weighted average of both methods produces a sufficient level of reserves.
Gross Property Casualty Loss and Loss Expense Payments
While we believe that historical performance of property casualty and life loss payment patterns is a reasonable source for projecting future claim payments, there is inherent uncertainty in this estimate of contractual obligations. We believe that we could meet our obligations under a significant and unexpected change in the timing of these payments because of the liquidity of our invested assets, strong financial position and access to lines of credit.
Our estimates of gross property casualty loss and loss expense payments do not include reinsurance receivables or ceded losses. As discussed in 2024 Reinsurance Ceded Programs, we purchase reinsurance to mitigate our property casualty risk exposure. Ceded property casualty reinsurance unpaid receivables of $362 million at year-end 2023 are an offset to our gross property casualty loss and loss expense obligations. Our reinsurance program mitigates the liquidity risk of a single large loss or an unexpected rise in claim severity or frequency due to a catastrophic event. Reinsurance does not relieve us of our obligation to pay covered claims. The financial strength of our reinsurers is important because our ability to recover losses under our reinsurance agreements depends on the financial viability of the reinsurers.
We direct our associates to settle claims and pay losses as quickly as is practical, and we made $4.276 billion of net claim payments during 2023. At year-end 2023, total net property casualty reserves of $8.613 billion reflected $3.442 billion in unpaid amounts on reported claims (case reserves), $1.601 billion in loss expense reserves and $3.570 billion in estimates of claims that were incurred but had not yet been reported (IBNR). The specific amounts and timing of obligations related to case reserves and associated loss expenses are not set contractually. The amounts and timing of obligations for IBNR claims and related loss expenses are unknown. We discuss our methods of establishing loss and loss expense reserves and our belief that reserves are adequate in Critical Accounting Estimates, Property Casualty Insurance Loss and Loss Expense Reserves.
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The historical pattern of using premium receipts for the payment of loss and loss expenses has enabled us to extend slightly the maturities of our investment portfolio beyond the estimated settlement date of the loss reserves. The effective duration of our consolidated property casualty fixed-maturity portfolio was 4.3 years at year-end 2023. By contrast, the duration of our loss and loss expense reserves was approximately 3.2 years. We believe this difference in duration does not affect our ability to meet current obligations because cash flow from operations is sufficient to meet these obligations. In addition, investment holdings could be sold, if necessary, to meet higher than anticipated loss and loss expenses.
Range of Reasonable Reserves
The company established a reasonably likely range for net loss and loss expense reserves of $7.926 billion to $8.704 billion at year-end 2023, with the company carrying net reserves of $8.613 billion. The range was $7.393 billion to $8.099 billion at year-end 2022, with the company carrying net reserves of $7.931 billion. Our loss and loss expense reserves are not discounted for the time-value of money, but we have reduced the reserves by an estimate of the amount of salvage and subrogation payments we expect to recover.
The low point of each year’s range corresponds to approximately one standard error below each year’s mean reserve estimate, while the high point corresponds to approximately one standard error above each year’s mean reserve estimate. We discussed management’s reasons for basing reasonably likely reserve ranges on standard errors in Critical Accounting Estimates, Reserve Estimate Variability.
The ranges reflect our assessment of the most likely unpaid loss and loss expenses at year-end 2023 and 2022. However, actual unpaid loss and loss expenses could nonetheless fall outside of the indicated ranges.
Management’s best estimate of total loss and loss expense reserves as of year-end 2023 and 2022 was consistent with the corresponding actuarial best estimate.
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Property Casualty Insurance Development of Estimated Reserves by Accident Year
The following table shows net reserve changes at year-end 2023, 2022 and 2021 by property casualty segment and accident year:
| (Dollars in millions) · Commercial · Personal · E&S | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lines | lines | lines | Other | Totals | |
| As of December 31, 2023 | |||||
| 2022 accident year | $(67) | $(45) | $(16) | $(9) | $(137) |
| 2021 accident year | (29) | (5) | — | 13 | (21) |
| 2020 accident year | (42) | (1) | (7) | (18) | (68) |
| 2019 accident year | 5 | (3) | 4 | — | 6 |
| 2018 accident year | (3) | (3) | (1) | (1) | (8) |
| 2017 accident year | (6) | (5) | 4 | — | (7) |
| 2016 and prior accident years | 19 | (2) | 5 | (2) | 20 |
| (Favorable)/unfavorable | $(123) | $(64) | $(11) | $(17) | $(215) |
| As of December 31, 2022 | |||||
| 2021 accident year | $(59) | $(52) | $14 | $1 | $(96) |
| 2020 accident year | (85) | (15) | (14) | (10) | (124) |
| 2019 accident year | 64 | 4 | (2) | 6 | 72 |
| 2018 accident year | 26 | 2 | (1) | (5) | 22 |
| 2017 accident year | (5) | — | (2) | (3) | (10) |
| 2016 accident year | (10) | (2) | (2) | (1) | (15) |
| 2015 and prior accident years | (7) | 2 | (2) | (1) | (8) |
| (Favorable)/unfavorable | $(76) | $(61) | $(9) | $(13) | $(159) |
| As of December 31, 2021 | |||||
| 2020 accident year | $(215) | $(52) | $— | $(16) | $(283) |
| 2019 accident year | (58) | — | 7 | (5) | (56) |
| 2018 accident year | (42) | 5 | — | (7) | (44) |
| 2017 accident year | (19) | 4 | 1 | 2 | (12) |
| 2016 accident year | (11) | (1) | 1 | (6) | (17) |
| 2015 accident year | — | (1) | (1) | — | (2) |
| 2014 and prior accident years | (8) | (5) | (1) | — | (14) |
| (Favorable)/unfavorable | $(353) | $(50) | $7 | $(32) | $(428) |
Overall favorable development for consolidated property casualty reserves of $215 million in 2023 illustrated the potential for revisions inherent in estimating reserves, especially for long-tail lines such as commercial casualty and workers’ compensation. As noted in Critical Accounting Estimates, Key Assumptions Loss Reserving, our models predict that actual loss and loss expense emergence will differ from projections, and we do not attempt to monitor or identify such normal variations. The table in Property Casualty Loss and Loss Expense Obligations and Reserves shows reserves by segment and lines of business and the components of gross reserves among case, IBNR and loss expense reserves.
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Favorable reserve development was $66 million for our workers' compensation line of business, $55 million for our commercial property line of business and $53 million for our homeowner line of business, together accounting for approximately 81% of the overall total. Unfavorable, or adverse, reserve development included $15 million for our commercial casualty line of business. Drivers of significant reserve development typically reflect loss emergence on known claims that was more favorable or less favorable than previously anticipated for various lines of business and are discussed below.
Commercial casualty – During 2023, we experienced unfavorable development on prior accident years in aggregate, driven by general liability coverages. Loss emergence for general liability claims rose more than anticipated and reflected economic or other forms of inflation. Due to increased uncertainty regarding ultimate losses, we intend to remain prudent in reserving for estimated ultimate losses until longer-term loss cost trends become more clear. During 2022, commercial casualty net reserve development was also unfavorable, driven by commercial umbrella coverages. Loss emergence for commercial umbrella claims rose significantly, much more than anticipated. We continue to monitor activity for various commercial casualty coverages so we can detect changes in trends on a timely basis.
Workers’ compensation – We continue to see favorable reserve development, for all prior accident years in aggregate. During 2023 and 2022, the trend for estimated payments to be made in future calendar years was stable compared with 2021. However, we continue to monitor this line of business closely, as a sudden increase in trend for future payments has a highly leveraged effect.
Commercial auto – Ultimate losses developed favorably by a small amount during calendar year 2023, for all prior accident years in aggregate. We believe inflation in recent years and reduced driving during the pandemic caused deviations from historical loss patterns. Due to increased uncertainty regarding ultimate losses, we intend to remain prudent in reserving for estimated ultimate losses until longer-term loss cost trends become more clear. Net reserve development was unfavorable in 2022, reflecting inflation effects.
Commercial property and homeowner – Loss emergence was less than anticipated for both 2023 and 2022. The majority of homeowner favorable reserve development for both years related to natural catastrophe events with inherently variable loss patterns. For commercial property, catastrophe events accounted for a significant portion, but less than half, of the favorable reserve development for both years.
In consideration of the data’s credibility, we analyze commercial and personal umbrella liability reserves together and then allocate the derived total reserve estimate to the commercial and personal coverages. Consequently, the umbrella factors that contributed to commercial lines reserve development also contributed to personal lines reserve development through the other personal line, of which personal umbrella coverages are a part.
For the excess and surplus lines insurance segment, the table showing reserves by segment and lines of business in Property Casualty Loss and Loss Expense Obligations and Reserves, shows the components of gross reserves among case, IBNR and loss expense reserves. Total gross reserves increased $179 million from year-end 2022, largely due to the increase in premiums and exposures for this segment, as we discussed in Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance Results. Net reserve development was a favorable $11 million during 2023 and $9 million during 2022, following adverse development of $7 million for 2021. Adverse reserve development during 2021 reflected more prudent reserving, as claims on average remained open longer than previously expected. Favorable reserve development following a period of adverse development, or vice-versa, shown in the table above, illustrates the potential for revisions inherent in estimating reserves.
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Life Insurance Policyholder Obligations and Reserves
Gross Life Insurance Policyholder Obligations
Our estimates of life, annuity and disability policyholder obligations reflect future estimated cash payments to be made to policyholders for future policy benefits, policyholders’ account balances and separate account liabilities. These estimates include death and disability income claims, policy surrenders, policy maturities, annuity payments, minimum guarantees on separate account products, commissions and premium taxes offset by expected future deposits and premiums on in-force contracts. Further, these estimates are based on mortality, morbidity and lapse assumptions reflective of our recent experience and expectations of future payment obligations.
Our estimates of gross life, annuity and disability obligations do not reflect net recoveries from reinsurance agreements. Ceded life reinsurance receivables were $216 million at year-end 2023. As discussed in 2024 Reinsurance Programs, we purchase reinsurance to mitigate our life insurance risk exposure. At year-end 2023, ceded death benefits represented approximately 33% of our total gross policy face amounts in force.
These estimated cash outflows are undiscounted with respect to interest. As a result, the sum of the cash outflows for all years of $6.354 billion (total of life insurance obligations) exceeds the liabilities recorded in life policy and investment contract reserves and separate accounts for future policy benefits and claims of $3.985 billion (total of life insurance policy reserves and separate account policy reserves). A significant portion of the difference can be attributed to the time value of money.
We have made significant assumptions to determine the estimated undiscounted cash flows of these policies and contracts that include mortality, morbidity, future lapse rates and interest crediting rates. Due to the significance of the assumptions used, the amounts presented could materially differ from actual results.
Life Insurance Reserves
Gross life policy and investment contract reserves were $3.068 billion at year-end 2023, compared with $3.015 billion at year-end 2022. The increase was primarily due to a decrease in market value discount rates and continued growth in net in-force life insurance policy face amounts. We establish reserves for traditional life insurance policies based on certain cash flow assumptions including mortality, morbidity and lapse rates as well as a discount rate assumption. The cash flow assumptions are based on our current expectations and are reviewed annually to determine any necessary updates. These assumptions are also updated on an interim basis if evidence suggests that they should be revised. The discount rate assumption is based on upper-medium grade fixed-income instrument yields (market value discount rates) and is updated quarterly. We use both our own experience and industry experience adjusted for historical trends in arriving at our cash flow assumptions.
We establish reserves for our universal life, deferred annuity and other investment contracts equal to the cumulative account balances, which include premium deposits plus credited interest less charges and withdrawals. Some of our universal life insurance policies contain no-lapse guarantee provisions. For these policies, we establish a reserve in addition to the account balance based on expected no-lapse guarantee benefits and expected policy assessments.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation - 2023 10-K - Page 104
2024 Reinsurance Ceded Programs
A single large loss or an unexpected rise in claims severity or frequency due to a catastrophic event is a risk to the company's liquidity and financial strength. To control such losses, we limit marketing property casualty insurance in specific geographic areas and monitor our exposure in certain coastal regions. Examples of this include limiting our earthquake writings in the New Madrid region or leveraging more restrictive terms and conditions through the use of our excess and surplus company in higher risk areas for wildfire or hurricane. Loss exposures in these areas have been identified as a major contributor to our catastrophe probable maximum loss estimates. We also continually review aggregate exposures to large disasters and purchase reinsurance protection to cover these exposures. For business other than Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global, we use the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) and Applied Insurance Research (AIR) models to evaluate exposures to a once-in-a-100-year and a once-in-a-250-year event to help determine appropriate reinsurance coverage programs. In conjunction with these activities, we also continue to evaluate information provided by our reinsurance broker. Examples include deterministic modeling of probable maximum loss contribution from growth in new geographic territories.
To help determine appropriate reinsurance coverage for hurricane, earthquake and severe convective storm exposures, for business other than Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global we use the RMS and AIR models to estimate the probable maximum loss from a single event or multiple events occurring in a one-year period. The models are proprietary in nature, and the vendors that provide them periodically update the models, sometimes resulting in significant changes to their estimate of probable maximum loss. As of the end of 2023, both models indicated that a hurricane event represents our largest amount of exposure to losses. The table below summarizes estimated probabilities and the corresponding probable maximum loss from a single hurricane event occurring in a one-year period, for business other than Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global, and indicates the effect of such losses on consolidated shareholders’ equity at December 31, 2023. Net losses are net of reinsurance, estimated reinstatement premiums and income taxes, assuming a 21% federal tax rate, and assume our 2024 reinsurance programs apply.
| (Dollars in millions) · RMS Model · AIR Model | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percent | Percent | |||||
| Gross | Net | of total | Gross | Net | of total | |
| Probability at December 31, 2023 | losses | losses | equity | losses | losses | equity |
| 2.0% (1 in 50 year event) | $572 | $272 | 2.2% | $597 | $272 | 2.2% |
| 1.0% (1 in 100 year event) | 901 | 342 | 2.8 | 923 | 338 | 2.8 |
| 0.4% (1 in 250 year event) | 1,545 | 647 | 5.3 | 1,495 | 575 | 4.8 |
| 0.2% (1 in 500 year event) | 2,225 | 1,217 | 10.1 | 2,007 | 1,003 | 8.3 |
The modeled losses according to RMS in the table are based on its RiskLink version 22 catastrophe model and use a long-term storm catalog methodology. The modeled losses according to AIR in the table are based on its AIR Touchstone®version 10.0 catastrophe model and use a long-term methodology. The AIR and RMS storm catalogs include decades of documented weather events used in simulations for probable maximum loss projections.
Reinsurance mitigates the risk of highly uncertain exposures and limits the maximum net loss that can arise from large risks or risks concentrated in areas of exposure. Management’s decisions about the appropriate structure of reinsurance protection and level of risk retention are affected by various factors, including changes in our underwriting practices, capacity to retain risks and reinsurance market conditions.
Reinsurance does not relieve us of our obligation to pay covered claims. The financial strength of our reinsurers is important because our ability to recover for losses covered under any reinsurance agreement depends on the financial viability of the reinsurer.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation - 2023 10-K - Page 105
For 2024, the primary participants on our standard market property and casualty per-risk and per-occurrence reinsurance ceded programs include Hannover Ruck SE, Munich Reinsurance America, Partner Reinsurance Company of the U.S., Transatlantic Reinsurance Company and Swiss Reinsurance America Corporation, all of which had A.M. Best insurer financial strength ratings of A (Excellent) or better as of December 31, 2023. Our property catastrophe program is subscribed through a broker by reinsurers from the U.S., Bermuda, London and the European markets. The largest participant in our property catastrophe program, representing approximately 19% of total participation, is the Lloyd's of London placement that features numerous syndicates. Some of the other reinsurers with large participation in the program include Lancashire Insurance Company Limited, Mapfre Re, Partner Reinsurance Company Ltd., Everest Re Group Ltd. and Chubb Tempest Reinsurance Ltd.
The following table shows our five largest property casualty reinsurance receivable amounts by reinsurer at year-end 2023 and 2022. Michigan Catastrophic Claims Association is a mandatory nonprofit association which runs a reinsurance program funded by an annual premium assessment per vehicle. This assessment covers Michigan’s automobile no-fault policies, which provide unlimited lifetime coverage for medical expenses resulting from auto accidents. The A.M. Best insurer financial strength ratings as of the end of the two most recent years are also shown for each of those reinsurers that have an applicable rating.
| (Dollars in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name of reinsurer | Totalreceivable | A.M. BestRating | Totalreceivable | A.M. BestRating |
| Munich Reinsurance America | $50 | A+ | $41 | A+ |
| Hannover Ruck SE | 47 | A+ | 24 | A+ |
| Swiss Reinsurance America Corporation | 42 | A+ | 34 | A+ |
| Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection & Insurance Company | 35 | A++ | 30 | A++ |
| Michigan Catastrophic Claims Association | 33 | NA | 37 | NA |
Cincinnati Financial Corporation - 2023 10-K - Page 106
Primary components of the 2024 property and casualty reinsurance program are summarized below. The premium estimates below occurred near the beginning of each respective year, when direct written premiums that were subject to applicable reinsurance treaties were also estimated.
Property per risk treaty – The primary purpose of the property treaty is to provide capacity up to $50 million, adequate for the majority of the risks we write. It also includes protection for extra-contractual liability coverage losses. We retain the first $10 million of each loss. Losses between $10 million and $50 million are reinsured at 100%. The 2024 ceded premium estimate was $71 million, compared with $54 million for the 2023 estimate.
Property excess treaty – We purchased a property reinsurance treaty that provides an additional $50 million in protection for certain property losses. This treaty, along with the property per risk treaty, provides a total of $100 million of protection. The 2024 ceded premium estimate was approximately $9 million, compared with $6 million for the 2023 estimate.
Casualty per occurrence treaty – The casualty treaty provides capacity up to $25 million. Similar to the property treaty, it provides sufficient capacity to cover the vast majority of casualty accounts we insure and also includes protection for extra-contractual liability coverage losses. We retain the first $10 million of each loss. Losses between $10 million and $25 million are reinsured at 100%. The 2024 ceded premium estimate was $20 million, compared with $19 million for the 2023 estimate.
Casualty excess treaty – We purchase a casualty reinsurance treaty that provides an additional $45 million in protection for certain casualty losses. This treaty, along with the casualty per occurrence treaty, provides a total of $70 million of protection for workers’ compensation, extra-contractual liability coverage and clash coverage losses, which would apply when a single occurrence involves multiple policyholders of The Cincinnati Insurance Companies or multiple coverages for one insured. The 2024 ceded premium estimate was approximately $4 million, essentially unchanged from the 2023 estimate.
Property catastrophe treaty – To protect against catastrophic events such as wind and hail, wildfires, winter storms, hurricanes or earthquakes, we purchased property catastrophe reinsurance with a limit up to $1.200 billion. This treaty and our property and casualty treaties contain exclusions for communicable disease and cyber losses. This treaty also contains an exclusion for terrorism, which varies in level of coverage across the program. Aggregation of losses into one event, sometimes referred to as an hours clause, varies by peril. For example, the general provision in this treaty is 168 hours, but it is 120 hours for a wind event and 96 hours for a riot or civil commotion event. Losses from the same occurrence can be aggregated into one limit over the hour period applicable to the peril causing the loss and applied to the treaty towards recovery. The treaty contains one reinstatement provision. The 2024 ceded premium estimate was $76 million, compared with $49 million for the 2023 estimate when the limit of coverage was $1.100 billion and we retained more risk for some of the layers described below. We retain the first $200 million of any loss, and a share of losses up to $1.200 billion. The percentage share we retain for each layer of coverage is indicated below:
60.1% of losses between $200 million and $300 million
24.8% of losses between $300 million and $400 million
18.6% of losses between $400 million and $600 million
10.6% of losses between $600 million and $800 million
20.4% of losses between $800 million and $1.000 billion
19.6% of losses between $1.000 billion and $1.200 billion
After reinsurance, including coverage of up to $25 million from the treaty effective June 1, 2023, described below, our maximum exposure to a catastrophic event that causes $1.200 billion in covered losses in 2024 would be $423 million, compared with retention of $617 million in 2023 for an event causing $1.200 billion in covered losses. The largest catastrophe loss event in our history occurred during 2022 from a December 21-31 winter storm system that affected many states in the U.S. Our losses from that storm were estimated to be $250 million, before reinsurance, as of December 31, 2023. The second largest catastrophe loss event in our history occurred during 2011 from a May 20-27 storm system that included a tornado in Joplin, Missouri, and that also included significant losses from hail in the Dayton, Ohio, area. Our losses from that storm were estimated to be $226 million, before reinsurance, based on updated estimates as of December 31, 2017.
Individual risks with insured values in excess of $100 million, as identified in the policy, are handled through a different reinsurance mechanism. We typically reinsure property coverage for individual risks with insured values between $100 million and $315 million under an automatic facultative agreement. For risks with property values exceeding $315 million, we negotiate the purchase of facultative coverage on an individual certificate basis.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation - 2023 10-K - Page 107
For casualty coverage on individual risks with limits exceeding $25 million, facultative reinsurance coverage is placed on an individual certificate basis. For risks with casualty limits that are between $25 million and $27 million, we sometimes forego facultative reinsurance and retain an additional $2 million of loss exposure.
Terrorism coverage at various levels has been secured in most of our reinsurance agreements. The broadest coverage for this peril is found in the property and casualty working treaties, the property per risk treaty and the casualty per occurrence treaty, which provide coverage for commercial and personal risks. A portion of our property catastrophe treaty provides terrorism coverage for personal risks, and coverage for commercial risks with total insured values of $28 million or less. For insured values between $10 million and $100 million, there also may be coverage in the property working treaty.
A form of reinsurance is also provided through The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 (TRIA). TRIA was originally signed into law on November 26, 2002, and extended on several occasions. The most recent extension was signed into law on December 20, 2019, and is scheduled to expire on December 31, 2027. TRIA provides a temporary federal backstop for losses related to the writing of the terrorism peril in property casualty insurance policies. Under regulations promulgated under this statute, insurers are required to offer terrorism coverage for certain lines of property casualty insurance, including property, commercial multi-peril, fire, ocean marine, inland marine, liability, aircraft and workers’ compensation. In the event of a terrorism event defined by TRIA, the federal government would reimburse terrorism claim payments subject to the insurer’s deductible. The deductible is calculated as a percentage of subject written premiums for the preceding calendar year. Our deductible in 2023 was $708 million (20% of 2022 subject premiums), and we estimate it is $763 million (20% of 2023 subject premiums) for 2024.
Reinsurance protection for the company’s surety business is covered under a separate treaty with many of the same reinsurers that write the property casualty working treaties.
Reinsurance protection for cyber coverage is also through a separate treaty. We offer cyber insurance as an affirmative coverage option on various insurance policies written on a direct basis and subsequently cede all of the related cyber insurance premiums to a reinsurer, therefore transferring substantially all of that risk.
Effective June 1, 2023, we restructured our reinsurance program for Cincinnati Re that included property catastrophe excess of loss coverage. The restructured treaties are for a period of one year and provide $40 million of coverage for various combinations of occurrences for business written in North America on a direct basis and by Cincinnati Re. Cincinnati Global catastrophe losses are not applicable to the treaty. There is a per occurrence limit of $20 million for Cincinnati Re catastrophe losses in excess of $80 million per event. The remaining coverage is for business written by Cincinnati Re and on a direct basis that applies to catastrophe losses in excess of $600 million per event.
Reinsurance protection for Cincinnati Global's business is also provided through separate treaties.
The Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance Company has separate property and casualty reinsurance treaties for 2024 through its parent, The Cincinnati Insurance Company. Primary components of the treaties include:
Property per risk treaty – The property treaty provides limits up to $6 million, which is adequate capacity for the risk profile we insure. It also includes protection for extra-contractual liability coverage losses. Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters retains the first $2 million of any policy loss. Losses between $2 million and $6 million are reinsured at 100% by The Cincinnati Insurance Company.
Casualty treaties – The casualty treaty is written on an excess of loss basis and provides limits up to $6 million, which is adequate capacity for the risk profile we insure. A second treaty layer of $5 million excess of $6 million is written to provide coverage for extra contractual obligations or clash exposures. The maximum retention for any one casualty loss is $2 million by Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters. Losses on a per occurrence basis between $2 million and $6 million and extra contractual and clash losses between $6 million and $11 million are reinsured at 100% by The Cincinnati Insurance Company.
Basket retention – Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters has purchased this coverage to limit their retention to $2 million in the event that the same occurrence results in both a property and a casualty loss.
Property catastrophe treaty – As a subsidiary of The Cincinnati Insurance Company, Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters is a named insured under our corporate property catastrophe treaty. All terms and conditions of this reinsurance coverage apply to policies underwritten by Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation - 2023 10-K - Page 108
For property risks with limits exceeding $6 million or casualty risks with limits exceeding $6 million, underwriters place facultative reinsurance coverage on an individual certificate basis.
Cincinnati Life, our life insurance subsidiary, purchases reinsurance under separate treaties with many of the same reinsurers that write the property casualty working treaties. Our corporate retention is $1 million on a single life. For our core term life insurance line of business, effective November 1, 2015, we increased our retention to $1 million for issue ages up to 61 years on new term life insurance sales, ceding the balance using excess over retention mortality coverage, and retaining the policy reserve. For issue ages 61 years or older, our retention is $500,000. Prior to November 1, 2015, and after 2004, we retain $500,000 per life. For term life insurance business written prior to 2005, we retain 10% to 25% of each term policy, not to exceed $500,000, ceding the balance of mortality risk and policy reserve.
We also have catastrophe reinsurance coverage on our life insurance operations that reimburses us for covered net losses in excess of $14 million. Our recovery is capped at $75 million for losses per occurrence.
The following table shows our five largest life reinsurance receivable amounts by reinsurer at year-end 2023 and 2022. Insurer financial strength ratings are also shown.
| (Dollars in millions) | 2023 | 2022 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name of reinsurer | Totalreceivable | Rating agency | Rating | Totalreceivable | Rating Agency | Rating |
| Swiss Re Life & Health America, Inc. | $61 | A.M. Best | A+ | $64 | A.M. Best | A+ |
| General Re Life Corporation | 50 | A.M. Best | A++ | 46 | A.M. Best | A++ |
| Lincoln National Life Insurance Company | 28 | A.M. Best | A | 28 | A.M. Best | A |
| Employers Reassurance Corporation | 15 | S&P | BBB+ | 15 | S&P | BBB+ |
| Munich American Reassurance Company | 12 | A.M. Best | A+ | 11 | A.M. Best | A+ |
Cincinnati Financial Corporation - 2023 10-K - Page 109
The text of this filing, as the company filed it with the SEC, without its images or exhibits. This is not investment advice.